How you should play a hand before the flop (continued)

June 20th, 2006

Your position
Your position is simply where you are in relation to the button. Being on the button is the best position because you will act last in all but the first betting round. Being one to the left of the button is then the worst position.
Position is perhaps the most undervalued component of good hold’em play. It’s easy to see that bigger cards are better, suited is better than non-suited, and if there is raising going on, you need a stronger hand to play. However, many (if not most) low-limit hold’em players make their playing decisions without considering their position. If you play without careful attention to your position, your bankroll will suffer.
By acting after other players, you know what they will do (check, bet, etc.) before they know what you will do on a given betting round; this gives you an advantage. For instance, suppose you have a very strong hand. If your opponent acts before you and bets, then you raise. If he checks, you bet. Regardless of his action, you get the maximum amount of money in the pot. On the other hand, if you’re first to act, then you must decide between betting immediately, hoping he will call, or trying to check-raise. If you check with the intent of raising and he checks too, you have lost the bet you would have made had you bet and he called.
Here’s another example of the importance of position. Suppose you have 55 as your starting hand. If you are the first to act before the flop, you normally shouldn’t call. We will cover this in detail shortly, but you need a lot of opponents to play small pairs. Suppose you call with your 55 in early position. If the next player to your left raises and scares out the other players, you now wish you hadn’t called the original bet. However, suppose you are on the button. If somebody raises early and limits the pot to two players, you fold, knowing you’re doing the right thing. But if six players call in front of you and there’s no raise, you can call with your fives. Simply being closer to the button means you have more information about how many opponents you will have and how much you’ll have to invest, enabling you to play this hand.
There is one aspect of position that is perhaps not as important in low-limit hold’em as it is in the higher limits. In tough hold’em games, when the flop doesn’t hit anybody, the player last to act can often bet and win the pot immediately. Because of the number of “calling stations” that are often in a lower limit game, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to do that. However, good position is still vitally important, and you must consider it at all times.
For the purposes of this text, we will consider a nine-player table. We’ll declare the first four positions to the left of the button “early position,” the next three “middle position,” and the last two (including the button) “late position.” Of course, you’ll need to adjust this for the exact number of players at your table. When doing so, tend to err on the side of caution; if you can’t decide if it’s early or middle position, call it “early.”

Your relative position
There is another aspect of position to consider - let’s call it “relative position.” It is where you sit in relation to specific other players at the table. Obviously, your position with respect to the button will change as it moves around the table. Your relative position to another player will be less volatile. For instance, if you sit immediately on a player’s left, then you’ll act after him on every hand with the exception of ones on which he has the button. If you sit directly opposite him at the table, you will act before and after him equally often.
If there is a player who is very aggressive and raises a lot, you’d generally like to be to his left. That way, you’ll see those raises coming before you act and can drop your marginal hands. If you sit to his right, too often you call one bet only to have him raise behind you and now you wish you’d saved the first bet.
If, however, that player bets and raises almost always (let’s say 90-95% of the time), then you want to have him on your left. Because he’ll be initiating action so frequently by betting or raising, you’ll effectively act last after he has started the action. For instance, this gives you the opportunity to check-raise the entire table when you make a strong hand. Remember, for this to be correct, that particular opponent must be almost guaranteed to bet or raise when given the chance. Otherwise, keep him to your right.
In general, you’d like to have loose passive players to your left. They behave predictably so you’re more willing to have them act after you. You will have an easier time predicting what they’ll do, and will make the right play more often.
You may even want to move into an empty seat that gives you better position with respect to certain players.

TBC

Some more hands

June 16th, 2006

1/ You hold 6 5 in the big blind. An early player calls, the button raises, the small blind calls, and you call. Four players see the flop of 9 6 3. You bet out. The early player calls and the button raises. The small blind calls and you call. All four players see the turn of 5. The small blind bets. You raise, the early player reraise, and the small blind calls. There is $320 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below  in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)   Answer: Call. You are most likely against a flush. There is also a chance you could be against a straight or a set. You have four strong outs to a full house unless an opponent has 99, or possibly 66 or 55. Four outs are 11 to 1 requiring only a $220 pot for calling to be correct. Note that your raise on the turn was questionable, as a flush was a high possibility given that three opponents paid two bets on the flop to see the turn. In the actual hand, the player called and lost to the early player who showed A Q.   2/ You hold Q J in early position. An early player calls, the next early player raises, and you call. A middle player, the cutoff, the button, and the big blind all call. Seven players see the flop of 9 8 6. The cutoff bets and the button raises. The first early player calls and the preflop raiser folds. You call and four players see the turn card of K. The cutoff bets, the button calls, and the early player calls. There is $430 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below  in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)  Answer: Call. Calling bets on the turn for a gut-shot straight is rarely correct unless the pot is quite large. In this hand, the pot is large and your call will close the betting so that you don’t risk a raise behind you. Your four outs are to the nuts since the board is not two-suited or paired. Four outs are 11 to 1 against improving requiring a pot of $330 to justify a call. In the actual hand, the player called and the T fell on the river. He bet and one opponent showed T 9.   

3/ You hold A 3 in middle position. A middle player limps in and you call. The cutoff, button, and small blind all caps. A wild unpredictable player raises from the big blind and everyone calls. Six players see the flop K Q J. The big blind bets, you call, the cutoff raises, and you both call. The turn is the K. The cutoff bets and the big blind raises. There is $360 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below  in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)  Answer: Fold. You are 4 to 1 against hiding the flush and are getting sufficient pot odds of 6 to 1 on the flush if it would win. However, there are several problems with calling in this situation.   Assuming that your opponents don’t already have a full house, couples of your outs are probably counterfeited and should be disregarded since it is likely that at least one of your opponents holds a king. In this case, you will lose to the Q or to another spade if it matches your opponent’s kicker card. This reduces your outs to seven, which is 6 to 1 against improving and is even money with a pot of $360; however, this is your best case. With a pair on the board, you need to discount your outs for the decent chance that you are drawing dead to a full house. Possible hands of your opponents include KK, QQ, JJ, KQ, and KJ. Some players may add outs for the possible straight; however, you would lose to a full house or KT. Even if the straight won, you would probably only split the pot.   In the actual hand, the player called. The flush came on the river. The big blind folded and the cutoff showed K9. The player collected a large pot in this particular case, but his call has a long run negative expectation given the pot size and betting sequences that occurred in the hand.   

4/ You raise in early position with A K. A middle player calls and both blinds call. Four players see the flop of 9 5 3. The big blind bets, you raise, the big blind reraise, and you call. The turn is the 2. The big blind bets. There is $320 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below  in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)  Answer: Call. The worst case scenario is that your opponent has a set or two pair. A straight is doubtful based on the betting sequences in the hand. Even in the worst case scenario, you still have four good outs to a gut-shot straight. A gut-shot draw is 11 to 1 requiring a pot of $440; however, you also have additional outs if your opponent is betting a pair. These outs are counterfeited however if your opponent holds A9, A5, A3, K9, K5, K3, a set, or two pair. I would discount the six outs to the ace or king down to three outs; therefore, J would play the hand as if I had seven outs, which is 6 to 1. Odds of 6 to 1 require a $240 pot; therefore, calling is justified. In the actual hand, the 4 came on the river giving the player a straight while his opponent showed 5 3.    5/ You hold A K on the button. A middle player calls and you raise. The big blind reraise and you both call. Three players see the flop of Q J 8. The big blind bets and you call. The turn is the 9. The big blind bets. There is $270 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)   Answer: Fold. You have 10 outs to improve your hand; however, an ace is counterfeited or already no good if your opponent holds AQ, AJ, AT, AA, QQ, JJ, or TT. All of these hands are possibilities from a reraise in the big blind. In fact, the only reasonable hand that you could expect to beat if an ace comes is KK. If the river is a king, your situation is worse as you could not heat any reasonable hands, and will only split if your opponent holds AK also. You have four strong outs to the gut-shot straight, although there still is the possibility you might split. Four outs are 11 to 1 and require a pot of $440 to be profitable. In the actual hand, the player folded.    

 

Some cases to think over

June 15th, 2006

1/ You hold 9d 6d in the small blind. A middle player and the button calls. You call and four players see the flop of As Qh 6c. The middle player bets and the button calls. There is $120 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Fold. You have five outs to improve your hand, which is 8 to 1. The pot odds are only offering 6 to 1 so you should fold. Even with better pot odds, you would need to discount your outs for the possibility that you are drawing practically dead to AA, QQ, 99, 66, AQ, A9, A6, K6, Q9, Q6, J6, and T6. Rarely draw to two small pair unless the pot is exceptionally large, and preferably when an ace is not on the board since there is a better chance that your outs are counterfeited with someone holding Ax {any hand with an ace in it).

2/ You hold As 9d in the small blind. A middle player and the cutoff call. You call and four players see the flop of Qc Td 9h. You check, the big blind bets, and the middle player and cutoff both call. There is $140 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Fold. You have five outs to improve your hand; therefore, you are 8 to 1 against improving requiring a pot of $160. In addition, with so many callers, there is a good chance that one of your opponents flopped a straight, a set, or two pair with this type of flop. If an opponent has two pair, your outs are reduced to three if they hold a 9 also. If an opponent holds a pair, your ace is counterfeited against AQ or AT. Even in the best case scenario where you improve to the best hand on the turn, with so many opponents there will be many ways you could lose on the river. You need very good pot odds to draw with such a dangerous flop against so many opponents. In the actual hand, the player folded. One opponent showed Q9 and the other KJ.

3/ You hold Ad Tc on the button. An early player and middle player call. You raise and the small blind calls. Four players see the flop of Qs Th 9d. The middle player bets. There is $10 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Raise. Note how your hand and the flop are almost identical to the previous problem; however, there are two main differences. First, the pot was raised preflop, giving you better pot odds. Second, two opponents have checked, indicating weakness. This differs from the previous hand where you already had three callers, making it difficult for you to have a winning hand. Your opponent could be betting a straight draw with a weak pair, in which case you may currently have the best band.

In low-limits, most opponents slowplay straights, sets, or even two pair, so usually you do not have to worry about those hands. Even if your opponent has top pair, you have five outs, which is 8 to 1. The pot odds are 10 to 1 so calling is justified; however, I prefer raising in this situation. Raising will drive out the other opponents from weak gut-shot draws and may allow you to possibly take a free card on the turn. Raising will also give you information on the flop about your opponent’s hand once you see how he responds. In the actual hand, the player just called and hit a full house when an ace fell on both the turn and river. The bettor folded and the early player showed A8.

4/ You hold Qs Jh in the big blind. A middle player, the cutoff, and the small blind call. Four players see the flop of Ad Ts Td. The middle player bets and the cutoff calls. There is $6 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Fold. You have four outs to the gut-shot straight, and this is reduced to three outs if one of your opponents has a flush draw. You also are drawing dead if one of your opponents holds AA, TT, AT, or KT. Three outs are 15 to 1 and the pot is only $6. In the actual hand, the player called both the flop and turn and got his straight when the K♦ fell on the river. Unfortunately, one of his opponents had 6♦ 5♦ and hit a flush. Straight draws go down in value when the flop is two-suited or paired, especially when they are only gut-shot draws.

5/ You hold Jc 9c in the big blind. An early player calls, the next early player raises, and the button, small blind, and you call. Five players see the flop of Jd Th 9h. You decide to check and the early position player bets into the preflop raiser who decides to raise. The small blind and you call. The early player reraises and the preflop raiser caps the betting. The small blind calls. There is $11.50 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Call. With so much, action you are probably against a straight, so you will need to improve. You have four outs to a full house, which is 11 to 1 against improving, but you are getting 12 to 1 pot odds assuming the early position player calls. If you do hit one of your outs, you should win a lot more bets. In the actual hand, the player folded. An opponent with Q♣ 8♥ won the hand. Although this player saved some bets since a jack or 9 did not come, the actual result of the hand does not mean his play was correct. In the long run, he would make more money by calling with the implied pot odds he was receiving.

Odds, Pot Odds, and Implied Odds

June 14th, 2006

To play poker well, you must understand the terms odds, pot odds, and implied odds. Let’s be sure that you grasp each term thoroughly before we go on.

Probability and odds
“Probability” is the likelihood of an event happening. It is a number between zero and one, and is often expressed as a percentage. For instance, a .70 probability of rain today is the same as a 70% chance of rain.
“Odds” are another way of expressing probability and are more applicable to games of chance such as poker. Odds are shown as a pair of numbers separated by a colon; the pair represents a ratio between the probability of an event happening and its not happening. Being somewhat whimsical, we could say (from our example above) that rain is a 7:3 “favorite” today. That is, the odds of rain are 7:3 in its favor; for every seven times it rains on a day like today, there will be three dry days. The opposite of favorite is “underdog” (or “dog” for short). If you say, “That team is a 5:2 underdog,” you mean that for every two times they win in this situation, they will lose Five.
What do odds mean to betting? Let’s consider the weather forecast above. You and a friend decide to bet on whether it will rain. Given that you know rain is a 7:3 favorite, what is a “fair” bet? If you choose to bet on rain, and your friend bets on no rain, you should put up $7 for each $3 he wagers. Over 10 days, it will probably rain seven times. You will collect $3 from your friend on each rainy day for a total of $21. On the remaining three days, it will not rain. Your friend will collect $7 from you on each dry day for a total of $21. Thus, on any given day, one of you will pay the other, but in the long run, you will both expect to break even. Now, suppose you can find somebody willing to put up $4 for each $7 you bet, but you know that rain is indeed a 7:3 favorite. You still lose $21 on the three dry days, but you collect $4 each of the seven rainy days for a total of $28. In 10 average days, you make a $7 profit! This book will teach you to find and exploit opportunities where you have a similar edge over your opponents.
Let’s look at a hold’em example. Suppose you have flopped a heart flush draw. That is, you have two hearts in your hand, and two more come on the flop. What are the odds of making your flush on the next card (the turn)? There are a total of 13 hearts in the deck; you have seen four of them, leaving nine more. You have seen a total of five cards (your two plus three in the flop). That leaves 47 unseen cards, of which nine are the hearts you want to see. There are 38 cards that do not make your flush and nine that do; the odds are 38:9 “against.” You are a 38:9 (slightly worse than 4:1) underdog to make your flush on the turn.

Pot odds
Pot odds are the odds being offered to you by the pot compared to the amount of money you must invest in it. For instance, suppose after the river card is turned up, there is $30 in the pot. Your opponent bets $6. The pot now has $36 in it, and you have to call $6 to see his hand. You are getting pot odds of 6:1. You will also hear the expression “the pot is laying you 6:1.” Now your choice is (relatively) easy: if you are no worse than a 6:1 underdog to win the pot, you call the $6; otherwise you fold.
Pot odds also apply to draws. Suppose you have a draw that is a 3:1 underdog to be made. For you to call a bet there should be at least three times as much money in the pot as the amount you must call. Of course, that includes any bets that precede your call. For instance, if the pot contains $15 and your opponent bets $6, the pot now contains $21 and is laying you 3.5:1. Since you are only a 3:1 underdog, you can call.

Implied odds
Going a step beyond pot odds are implied odds. More accurately, they might be called implied pot odds. When you compute pot odds, you can only consider the money that’s already in the pot.
The concept of implied odds lets you ask the question, “If I make the hand I’m drawing to, how much more money will I win than what’s already in the pot?”
For example, suppose you have a flush draw with one card left to come. You know you are about a 4:1 underdog to make your flush. There is $16 in the pot, and your opponent bets $6. The pot (now $22) is laying you about 3.7:1, but you’re a 4:1 dog to make your flush. According to strict pot odds, you can’t call. However, suppose you’re “sure” that your opponent will call a $6 bet on the river if you make your flush. Now you can act as if the pot contains $28 (what it currently contains plus the $6 more you will win if you make your flush). You can make the $6 call with your flush draw.
Of course, when considering pot odds or implied odds for a draw, you must be “sure” that you will win the pot if you make your draw. If you’re not sure, then the pot must lay you a higher price to make your draw correct. Also, when considering implied odds, you must be just as sure that your opponent will call your bet after you have made your hand.

You will win

June 12th, 2006

Webfeed (RSS/ATOM/RDF) registered at http://www.feeds4all.nlYou know playing poker you face different situations. Sometimes you’re so lucky. Seems that you could raise any hand on preflop and win a cap on the river getting a straight.
But at the same time you could catch another streak. You will have you pocket aces all night long and you will be beaten by an idiot with 27o and his two pairs.
If this happens I usually reread this abstract from Internet Texas Hold’em. Winning Strategies from an Internet Pro by Matthew Higler.
Let me introduce it to you.

Poker is a game of skill. This is not easy to explain to people who do not understand the game, but good poker players will win the money.
Good Poker Players = The MONEY
However, there is one huge caveat in this equation. That caveat is time. Good poker players will win the money given enough time.
Good Poker Players = The MONEY…given TIME
In any one hand, the odds are pretty even for everybody. Over an hour, the better poker players have a little advantage, but could easily lose a lot. In a session of eight hours, a good poker player will win the majority of the time, but not all the time. If a good poker player plays 100 hours of $20-$40 limit Hold’em, he could win as much as $20,000. But once in a blue moon, he might lose $10,000. A good poker player could only break even after 1400 hours of play. Given any time below that, he could possibly lose.
As you can see, a good poker player will win given enough time, but it may not be as easy as it seems in a short time period. Granted, these are extreme cases, but they can happen. What happens in between the extremes is a lot of short-term fluctuations, which can frequently last several days, sometimes several weeks, and even several months. We will talk more about these fluctuations in the “Bankroll Management” chapter.
It is important to realize that there are subtle differences between a good poker player and a bad one that take effect over time. The beauty of poker is that the bad players always remember the limes they had some good short-term luck, so they keep coming back for more until they eventually go broke.
However, understanding how to play good poker is not enough to win the money. You must APPLY this knowledge at all times. Poker is a fun and exhilarating game, but there is nothing more frustrating than outplaying an opponent only to lose money to him,
MANY players begin to play badly when things do not go their way. This is commonly referred to as tilt. However, I don’t think tilt fully explains the range of emotions. Of course, the first step is preventing yourself from going on tilt, but there is a big difference between playing your “A” game and going on tilt. Many players may not go on full tilt, but they begin to play just a few more hands or make a few more calls than they should. This often happens late at night when a player is trying to get back to even before going to bed. Good players realize that they can always get hack to even the next day.
I expect that the difference between the expert players and the good players is their emotional control. You must have discipline to be successful playing poker.
So remember:
Good Disciplined Poker Players = The MONEY…given TIME

And remember also that poker is not blackjack. You are playing against usual people not a system. And if you perform better poker you are going to win the money.
Arnold Snyder who plays blackjack professionally could state in many his articles that you shall not win. But laying poker you may be sure that being a Good Disciplined Poker Player you will win. And it doesn’t matter how long it will take you.
You will win.
If you play poker you will win.
If you’re ready to improve your poker skills you will win.
At long last…

The Expected Value

June 10th, 2006

I’ve noticed that in my previous posts I’ve used some terms that are really important to know.
First of all it’s expected value.
The term comes from the probability theory.
You are in a restaurant looking at a menu. You see two entrees that you like equally, but one is cheaper than the other. You decide to order the cheaper one because you will be just as happy with it. You have just made a decision based on the comparison of the expected value of the two entrees.
You are driving on a highway during rush hour. Your lane seems to be going slower than the lane to your left. The first chance you get, you switch over to the left lane so you can get home faster. You have just made a decision based on the comparison of the expected value of the two lanes.
You are playing poker. The pot is very big, but your hand is mediocre. On the last round of betting, you say “ah, what the heck, I’m going to call, the pot is just too big.” You have just made a decision based on the perceived expected value using information about the size of the pot and the strength of your hand.
Expected value is a concept that everybody uses in their daily lives, although they may not realize it. Whenever we have a choice, we use expected value to guide us on our decision. Sometimes the value of the choices are not purely monetary as it could be based on happiness, a term that academics like to call utility. Usually there is no need to use a formula to calculate the expected value of a decision, but there are some cases where the use of calculating expected value will show us something that is counterintuitive or simply show us why a certain idea is correct or incorrect. It can also help us to pinpoint what factors we need to consider when we are playing poker.
Expected value (EV) is a term used to describe the value of an event over the course of all possibilities. It is an easy way to describe situations that can have many different results, and shows the average result over all the probabilities. A simple example involves a basketball player at the free throw line. If the basketball player has made 750 free throws out of 1000 free throw attempts, you could estimate that he has a 75% chance of making a free throw attempt. Then you can say the EV of the number of points that he will score on one free throw attempt is 0.75. He will either make the free throw and score one point or miss the free throw and not score a point, but on average, he is expected to score 0.75 points with one free throw. The concept of EV is used throughout this book to demonstrate the values of certain poker plays and ideas. This section shows how EV can be calculated and demonstrates how it can be used, in preparation for its usage throughout this book.
The way to calculate the EV of an event is to take all possible events and assign a probability and a result to them. The sum of the probabilities will equal 100%, and the sum of each individual result multiplied by its probability will equal the EV. If the EV of the event is a positive number, we can say the event has a positive expectation or positive value. If the EV of the even is a negative number, we can say the event has a negative expectation or negative value.
Here’s an example in Hold’em
You are playing $10-$20 Hold’em and the pot is currently $80 after the Turn card.. You have an open-ended straight draw and you are 100% sure your opponent has a hand that you will not beat unless you make a straight. But if you do hit your straight, you will win the hand. You believe there is a 17% chance that you will make your straight and a 83% chance that you will not. (In the chapters on Outs and Pot Odds, I will go into further detail on how to estimate your chances of winning and losing.)
Your opponent bets $20 and you must decide to call or fold. You only have $20 left in your stack, and if you call, you cannot lose more or win more on the River as you are considered all-in. If you call and win, you will win $100. If you call and lose, you will lose $20. You have to figure out if calling has a positive expectation.

Action
Computation
Result
EV of 10/20 problem
(17% x $100) + (83% x -20)
+$0.40

So you expect to make $0.40 by calling, which means it is better to call than fold. Sometimes you will win $100, more often you will lose $20. However on average, you expect to make $0.40. Calculations like this are difficult for most players to do in their heads while at the poker table. In the chapter on Pot Odds, a simpler way to make the determination of calling or folding is shown. It is practical and much easier to implement, and yet it will be consistent with the EV equations. It is still useful to understand and apply the EV equations when studying the game and thinking about certain situations when not at the poker table. That is its purpose in this book, using it to study the game as opposed to using the equations directly at the table. There are simpler ways to make those calculations and not give up any accuracy.
In poker, whether they know it or not, players are always trying to put themselves into situations where they have positive EV. Good players are able to distinguish between situations that have positive EV and negative EV. When they have positive EV, they will decide to get involved in the hand. When they do not have positive EV, they will get out of the hand. Meanwhile, bad players are not able to distinguish between positive and negative EV. Thus they will often get involved in hands that have negative EV. Sometimes they will get out of hands that have positive EV. Every poker player must identify the difference between positive EV situations and negative EV situations. Once the positive EV situations are identified, the goal is identify the best play that will maximize the EV.

How to play a hand with AK or AKs?

June 7th, 2006

Every poker player has faced this situation. Every poker session you deal with it. No matter where are you playing in Vegas, Miami or California you will see this case. And every book that deals with poker explains it. But I’m still not sure. I’m talking about a hand like AK or AQ or even AKs. Of course it’s not a problem when it goes the way you like. You raise preflop, then get some calls and face one or two top pairs on flop. I like these situations most. I prefer to slowplay a little checking or calling the flop and then “banzai!!!” on turn and river. And especially I like guys who call and raise my stakes having the same pair with lower kicker. That is really very profitable. 

But the question is what shall I do if I have raised preflop and have absolutely nothing on the flop? Like I have AKo and flop is J73 rainbow… The first idea is to fold immediately. My wife prefers to play that way. She says playing low limits you could be absolutely sure that some of they guys that called your preflop had improved their hands with that flop. So in this case you have to struggle with one or even two lower pairs having nothing but implied odds. You still HOPE to get your pair (having 8 / 46 + 8 / 45 = 0.35 chances to get a pair) while they HAVE their pair already and chances to beat you. 

The other point of view is suggested by many authors. They consider the odds to be rather high related to the pot you could win in that case. So the right move in this situation is to bet or raise someone’s bet on flop. Those who prefer to bet in this situation use this line of reasoning. Let’s consider usual situation. You have AK in middle position. There are several folds before you. You raise and all the others fold except one guy. This case is the most typical. Then we have 2 to 1 chances that your opponent haven’t improved his flop too. That’s why you have very good chances to win a pot just after your bet. Considering that we bet 1 stake that forms a pot of 5 stakes the expected value of this bet is positive. Even if he calls you still have good chances to improve your hand. And bu the way you have a chance to win with ace high at showdown. And there is one more argument to perform bet here. You could do this with an overpair. If you check a flop with AK no one will call you bet when you have an overpair. So you will earn less in both cases that steals your earnings. 

Of course both this arguments are concerning the flop only. You have to think over the turn and the river weighing your opponents and the way they play their hands in order to decide whether it is worthy to bet on turn. 

My opinion is closer to the second position. In most case I prefer to bet this deck. But at the same time any check-raise can easily brake me down even my opponents has 27o and no pair too. Could anyone explain me what is the right way to play these hands. Please consider my limits. I still play $0.25 - $0.5 though I’m tired a little of this limit. Maybe at $0.5 - $1 this situation will be much easier to deal with. 

P.S. By the way when I have seen European Poker Tour or World Series of Poker on TV I mostly see the guys playing all in with AK. They are playing no limit holdem of course. But they are top poker professionals. I think they know what they are doing. That is one more argument to bet here. Anyway I’m willing to see you comments to discuss the topic. 

A hand that makes the world to go round

May 25th, 2006

That is the brief report from battlefield. Thanks to this outstanding victory our troops have managed to defend the position we have earned earlier. The superior forces of enemy were trying to move me to finish my poker career. But that brilliant move made them run away. 

We are the champions, my friend, 

Cause we’ll keep on fighting to the end. 

I was playing 3 $0.25 - $0.5 tables that night. It was second or third time I’ve decided to play 3 tables. And it seems to me that was a little bit hard for me. I haven’t felt it that time but after the session I can make such a conclusion. I think playing 3 tables I couldn’t pay the necessary attention to every player at my tables and as a result I decreased the quality of my poker. Anyway I’ve lost about $20 in less than an hour. That was a heavy strike on my account as I had less than $80 for the moment I started the session. By the way $20 is 40BB for $0.25 - $0.5 limit. I consider such a loss too big… 

I was disappointed a little but still considered that everything could happen. I believe to the probability theory and to the Big Numbers Law. I know that if I play right according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker I will be able to win. I have to pay attention to the quality of my poker not to the results. 

So I decided to leave one table and that decision has improved my poker at the other tables. I’ve won a little. My loss decreased to $17. And after that I’ve played this hand. During that time I’ve sat out of the second table and haven’t returned to it. I needed to pay a lot of attention to this hand. 

I was #5 with Ts Js

PreflopSB Posted Small Blind $0.1 

BB Posted Big Blind $0.25 # 1 folded, #2 raised, 2 folds, #5 called, #6 folded, #7 called, Button called, SB called, BB called. 

6 players, 12 Bets  Flop 

8s Qs Kc

2 checks, #2 Bet, #5 Raised, #7 called, Button called, SB called, BB called, #2 reraised, #5 caped, #7 called, Button called, 2 folds, #2 called. 4 players, 32 Bets 

Turn 

3h

#2 Bet, #5 raised, #7 called, Button called, #2 reraised, #5 caped, #7 called, Button called, #2 called. 4 players, 32 Big Bets 

River 

9s

#2 Bet, #5 raised, #7 called, Button called, #2 called. 

#2 showed Kh Kd

#5 showed Ts Js

#7 showed Qh 3c 

Button showed Ac Jd

#5 won 40 Big Bets with Queen high Straight Flush. 

For the moment it’s my highest output from one hand. I’ve won almost $20 in less then a minute.  Could anyone comment on me if I were right playing this hand? 

The fundamental theorem of poker

May 24th, 2006

First I should admit that I’m not pretending to be the author of this idea. But the experience I have for the moment confirms that it’s true. It could bring you the money if you follow it and rob you if not.
I’m speaking about The Fundamental Theorem of Poker. Every guy who’s going to play poker should understand this concept. If you are playing more often than once a month you’ll feel the difference.
And your family also will feel the difference (^_^)
The statement of The Fundamental Theorem of Poker is very simple to understand. But it’s much more difficult to imply to your everyday poker as it demands much from you.
It says:
“If you could play the hand better knowing the cards of your opponent than you were mistaken and that hand has brought you losses. This is true even if you had won the hand. On the other hand if you couldn’t play better knowing the cards of you opponents than you are earning the money even on the case loosing a hand”.
This seems a little bit difficult to understand but it becomes much clearer in these examples.
Consider you have Ah Jh and your only opponent has 2s 7c.
Preflop
You are on BB and he is on SB. He completes to BB and you are checking.
The flop brings Ac Tc 7h.
He bets and you call.
Turn and 8s.
He bets and you call.
River 3c.
He checks and you check too.
As a result you are winning 4 Big Bets with your higher pair earning 2 Big Bets. But if you know the hand of your opponent you were playing differently.
First of all you’d better raise on preflop as your hand is much better than your opponent’s one. This would probably bring you one more bet or an opportunity to win the money without the risk of loosing 277 deck. Then you’d better raise on flop and turn and bet on river for the same reasons. As a result if your opponent call you to showdown you could win 3 more Big Bets from this hand. Frankly speaking you’ve lost these 3 Big bets in this hand.
Got it?
The other situation. Again you are playing heads up with one guy. And again you have Ah Jh and your only opponent has 2s 7c.
Preflop.
He completes SB to BB and you are raising. He calls.
The flop brings Ac Tc 7h.
He checks, you bet and he calls.
Turn and 8s.
He checks, you bet and he calls.
River 7s.
He bets and you fold!
 

On the first glance seems that you’ve lost a lot of your money in vain. But let’s consider your play if you know the cards of your opponent.
Preflop. You have much better cards that will bring you money against your opponent’s hand in most cases. So in most cases you will win the money he put to the pot.
Flop. You have an overpair. You have a pair of aces. It’s like the situation that you have pocket aces that didn’t match the deck. What do you usually do with pocket aces? You bet for sure! And you know that the only cards that could help your opponent are sevens and twos. So there are only 5 cards that could help your opponent and 42 that brings the money to you… Is it enough advantage to bet? I think yes. So again your bet is the best decision you could do.
Turn.
Nothing have changed. Again you have a huge advantage that drives you to bet. Your probability to win had even grew as there is only one opportunity left to change the situation (if you know basics of probability theory you could calculate the proofs for that statement).
River.
Oops! Seems he got the card that improved him over us. In real poker you don’t fold usually in such situations as there could be bluffing. But if we know the cards of your opponent you should fold for sure.
So as a result you have lost this hand. But in more than 80% of such hands you will win. You haven’t given you opponent any additional opportunity to increase his gains. And the next time you’ll win more.
You should clap the guy on the back and cheer him as WSOP winner. He will pay you in the next several minutes.
 

So it’s very important for a poker player to read the hands of his opponents and to behave himself accordingly.

Bluffing

May 22nd, 2006

That there is falsehood in his looks,
I must and will deny:
They say their Master is a knave,
And sure they do not lie.
Robert Burns “On Dr. Babington’s Looks”
 

Every poker player will assert that bluffing is a very important concept of successful poker. Every book on poker is dealing with this concept. Most of people not playing poker consider bluffing the main and even the only way to win the money. OK, I thought so too.
Maybe this felling is caused by different fiction books and films. Do you remember Maverick? You’ve hold you breath…”
Online holdem poker gives a player fantastic opportunity to bluff. Look, nobody could see you, nobody can’t interpret your gestures, your style of conduct… Nobody could see if you are glad with your card or not. Nobody looks for falsehood in your looks. Seems you can bluff every worthy hand.
BUT everyone understands this. Every person you oppose knows nothing about you and your habits but they do understand this clearly and have to act in these conditions. The guys in front of you know that you can bluff. And many times they desire to check if it is so.
Micro limits will change your attitude to bluff. I promise. I faced the same problem. Everything that is connected to bluff could lead you to losses while you are playing micro limit table. I spent almost 3 month in vain trying to overcome the situation. I’ve changed the tables and started new limits. But still bluffing shows strong trend to bring losses.
I couldn’t understand that. Is it possible to play poker and not to use bluff?
What do you think?
The right answer for the question is NO of course. Definitely you can play without bluff but if your opponents understand this you’d better change the table. If you are not trying to lie the guys you’re playing against will fold their cards every time you have something worthy so you will not get any money from them ever.
So the right conduct is to bluff. At least sometimes. But be aware to bluff too often at the lowest limits. Your opponents don’t consider their money too valuable comparing to the satisfaction of catching a bluffer. They call this honesty check. And they practice it too often.
Maybe you had known that before playing poker. I didn’t. And thanks to David Sklansky and his Theory of Poker. I like this book much more than Holdem Poker for Advanced Players. It seems more concrete to me. And I’ve got a lot of tricks I’m using now from there.
So David explains why it’s almost impossible to bluff at micro limits tables.
Do you know the main feature of $0.1 - $0.2 tables at Poker.com? I think the same situation is in other pokerrooms. The number of people watching the flop. It reaches 60% at 10-max table (a table that could played by 10 players) and 80% at 6-max. Yesterday I’ve seen 99% number at one 6-max table.
When there are so many people your probability to win decreases in geometric series. The only deserving variant of bluffing that shows positive expected value is bluffing against ONE opponent.
Don’t repeat my mistakes. And don’t believe the guys who haven’t played poker professionally – writers, producers, scenario writers.

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