poker at Win Poker

When calculating odds, you need to use the number of discounted outs that will help you win the hand. As discussed before, it does you no good to improve your hand only to lose to a better hand. Let’s look at some examples to see better how you determine the number of discounted outs.
You have K♦ Q♣ and the board is J♦ T♣ 5♥ 2. You have eight strong outs to the nut straight with any ace or 9 and six weak outs to the king or queen. The six outs to the king or queen are weak since your opponent could ahead; have two pair or a set or is counterfeiting your outs.
In this example, a king would give you a pair but might also give an opponent a straight, two pair, or a pair with a better kicker. Note all the hands you would lose to if a king comes: KK, JJ, TT, 55, 22, AK, AQ. KJ, KT, K5, K2, Q9, JT, J5, J2, T5, and T2. If a queen comes, you would lose to QQ, JJ, TT, 55, 22, AK, AQ, K9, QJ, QT, Q5, Q2, JT, J5, J2, T5, T2, and 98.
How much you should discount your weak outs often depends on how many opponents you are against. In the example above, you have six weak outs. Against a lone opponent, if you feel that 50% of the time a king or queen will help you win, you should discount the six weak outs to three. In this case, you would play the hand as if you had an equivalent of 11 outs to win the hand, the three discounted outs and the eight strong outs to the nut straight. If you are against two opponents, you might estimate that a king or queen would win only once every six times; therefore, you would play as if you had nine outs, eight nut outs to the straight plus the one discounted out. Against three opponents, you should probably disregard the weak outs since it is unlikely a king or queen will win. In this case, you would play only if you draw to your eight nut outs is justified. Let’s look at some more examples.
You have A♣ T♥ and the flop is K♦ T♣ 5♠. You have two strong to the ten, unless an opponent holds KT or T5. Another ace would give you two pair, but your out is counterfeited if an opponent holds AA, AK, or QJ, so you should discount the out to the ace. All your outs should be discounted slightly for the possibility that an opponent holds a set. Depending on the number of opponents and the betting sequences, you should play this hand as if you had between two and four outs.
You have A♣ 9♥ and the flop is J♦ 9♦ 4♣ with several callers on the flop. You probably are against a flush draw, so the A♦ is counterfeited. You could also lose to another ace if someone has AA or AJ. Always account for the possibility of a set.
Hint: Whenever the flop is two-suited, you should discount a suited out against a lone opponent and probably disregard the out against several opponents for the risk that one of them holds a flush draw.
A common mistake made by many players is drawing to weak hands when flush draws are likely. As a general rule, most draws are not profitable with a two-suited flop arid several callers in the hand. The only exception to this is when the pot is exceptionally large. This is a key concept since you will be playing with a two- or three-suited flop about 60% of the time! This concept is discussed further in the flop chapters. For now, simply understand that you need to discount or disregard your outs based on the likelihood that they are counterfeited.
Another consideration when determining your outs on the flop is the possibility that you could improve on the turn only to see an opponent improve to an even better hand on the river.
Hint: When drawing on the flop, you should discount your outs a little, and maybe a lot, for the probability that your opponents could draw to an even better hand on the river.
There are very few hands that are a lock to win on the turn. Nut flushes can lose to a full house if the board pairs on the river. The nut straight can lose to a flush on the river. Your two pair could lose to an opponent hitting a set. When the flop is two-suited, these types of situations occur often since there are a lot of river cards that could hurt your hand.
Most players complain about their bad luck when they improve on the turn to lose on the river. Good players recognize that these types of situations occur a lot and include this possibility in their decision-making process. Borderline draws on the flop should often be folded for the possibility that you will lose on the river.
Now that we know how to determine the number of discounted outs and calculate the odds against improving to the best hand, we can look at how to apply odds at the poker table.

Overcards are cards higher than anything on the board. Let’s consider an example. You have
K♦ Q♥
and the flop comes
9♣ 6♥ 2♦
You have two overcards - can you call a bet? Can you bet? Many poker experts say that you can bet or call a bet in this sit¬uation. However, it takes a lot of experience and knowledge to know when you can play with just overcards. A bet with two overcards is usually a semi-bluff (you’re hoping to win the pot right there, but have chances of improving to the best hand). Most low-limit games are sufficiently loose and passive that a semi-bluff won’t work, so betting is probably not correct. We believe you are not losing much by folding in this situation if there’s a bet ahead of you. If it’s checked to you, take a free card and hope you turn top pair. In the situation above, if a queen or king falls on the turn, you probably have the best hand and can bet (or even raise).
Expert players are able to make some money with two overcards, but you are not giving up much by dropping them unless you have other possibilities (which we discuss below). Misplaying those overcards once or twice will cost you more than you could make by playing them correctly a dozen times. The problem with overcards is that you can win a little or lose a lot. Most of the time, you’ll have to throw them away on the turn because they don’t improve. Therefore, to make a profit with them, you must play aggressively when they do hit on the turn. If you pick the wrong time to do this, you may be raising with the worst hand. This is an area where you can improve your re¬sults by limiting your mistakes. Until you have a lot of hold’em under your belt and understand your opponents well, you can best limit your mistakes by staying out of these situations.
When you can play overcards
There are some situations in which you can call a bet with over¬cards:
Backdoor flush or straight possibilities. For instance, you have A♠-T♠ and the flop comes 9♥-6♠-2♣. Now you can call a bet since an ace or ten may give you the best hand, and another spade on the turn gives you the nut flush draw. If you’re hoping to make a backdoor straight, the turn should possibly give you an open end draw to the nuts. For instance, you have Q♣-J♣ and the flop comes 9♥-4♠-3♦. Again, you could make top pair on the turn, and a ten will give you a draw to two different nut straights. The higher your cards, the better, so if you do make the top pair on the turn, you will have fewer chances for an overcard to your top pair falling on the river.

A-K overcards on the flop
AK (often called “Big Slick”) is one of the most difficult hands to play if it “misses” the flop. You will either make top pair or two overcards with it, so you often find yourself wanting to con¬tinue with it, almost regardless of the flop. Do not fall victim to this trap. If you’re going to call with two overcards, AK is the hand with which to do it, but choose your places carefully. Look for situations where you’re virtually certain that hitting your pair will be good, you have backdoor draws, or suspect that an oppo¬nent is betting a draw. Furthermore, it is almost never correct to call a bet on the turn with an unpaired AK, unless you’ve picked up some other draw.
Once in a great while, you can raise with AK when it doesn’t pair on the flop, particularly if you suspect that the bettor doesn’t have a good hand. On rare occasions, this may cause the bettor to fold immediately, or at least get you a free turn card. If you are re-raised, or the bettor calls and then bets the turn, you are done with the hand. Realize that this is a deceptive play, and such plays have limited use in most low-limit games. Many players can not give up AK until the river fails to pair them; a classic tip-off is when somebody raises pre-flop and then passively calls a bet on the flop. If you detect such behavior, be prepared to bet hands that you might otherwise check on the turn; don’t give the two overcards a free chance to beat you.

A word of warning
In tighter games, you can use the flop to decide the chances that you’re up against two pair already. However, in a no fold’em hold’em game, many players are capable of showing you any two cards. For instance, in a tighter hold’em game you’d be more inclined to play overcards with a flop of T-5-2 since it would be unlikely somebody already had two pair. In lower limit games, you will see people win big pots with T5. This is another reason why it’s a marginal play to continue with just overcards in low-limit hold’em games.
You will routinely see your opponents continue playing (even calling a raise cold) with two overcards to the flop. You will also occasionally be sitting on the sidelines watching when your overcards would have made the best hand. Have faith, and throw them away the next time, too. For low-limit hold’em players, flopping two overcards is a marginal case of our next topic: what to do when the flop misses you completely.

Playing When the Flop Misses You
In completing our discussion of how to play on the flop, we need to remind you that this, unfortunately, will be the most frequent result of the flop: you get a very small piece of it, or less.
You’ll flop second or bottom pair with no overcards. Three to a Hush or straight and nothing else. One overcard. Your opponents will routinely call a bet in this situation, hoping to pick up a little more on the turn. This is where decisive action can save you a lot of money:
Fold and be done with it.
We have discussed essentially every case in which you can play beyond the flop. Every other time, your pre-flop investment is gone. Forget about it. Watch the rest of the hand. See how your opponents play, figure out what you would do in a similar situa¬tion. Get up and stretch, drink a glass of water. However, do not just throw in a loose call on the flop to see what happens next. This discipline alone will take you a long way toward becoming a winning hold’em player.

There is a problem in low limit poker. It’s a very annoying problem for players who play right poker. I mean if you consider pot odds and implied pot odds and make your bets according to them it may be very offensively for them to see other players winning huge pots with 75o. If the story continues they may even go on tilt with the situation.
Do you know this story well?
Have you ever seen that damn suckers at your table?
BUT they may also be right. They may be right calling you all the streets ACCORDING TO POT ODDS! And that’s the problem of low limit poker.
In low limit poker the pot will normally be quite large on the flop because there are many callers pre-flop. Furthermore, these players want to call your bets on the flop - they did not come down to the card club to fold! Assuming you have the best hand, you now have two possible scenarios:
1. If you have an excellent hand - one that is unlikely to be beaten, regardless of the turn and river cards - you are happy to have all these people calling your bets and raises.
2. If you have a good hand - one that is probably best right now, but susceptible to being beaten - you would like to eliminate as many opponents as possible. This, of course, is the much more common scenario.
The combination of a large pot and people’s desire to call puts you in a bad situation when you have a good, but beatable, hand. Your opponents’ instinct (which is to call a lot) coincides with correct play. That is, it may be correct for them to call your bet because the pot is large, but they are calling in part simply be¬cause they want to call.
Suppose, however, we make your opponents pay two bets rather than one to continue playing. Now, even with a relatively large pot, they may be making a serious mathematical mistake by call¬ing. As we have said before, this is how you make your money at low-limit hold’em.
A classic example
You are on the big blind with
A♥ Q♦
There are three callers, and then a raise in late position. You (correctly) call the raise. Now the flop comes
Q♣ 7♥ 5♠
At this point, you suspect you have the best hand. However, if you bet out immediately, you will be putting the 11th bet into the pot, making it correct for hands such as 98 and 65 to call. Oppo¬nents with those hands might well call anyway, but you want them to make a mistake by calling when they’re not getting suf¬ficient pot odds. Now suppose you check, and it’s checked to the pre-flop raiser. When he bets, you raise; the players in the middle have to call two bets cold. Instead of getting 11:1 pot odds, the player directly behind you is getting only 13:2. If he has 98 or 65, he may decide to fold rather than call two bets. If he chooses to call, you make money because the pot odds do not justify his call.
But suppose you check, and the person immediately to your left bets. Now some people call, and then you raise. If the original bettor re-raises, the other players are forced to call two (more) bets cold - another mistake. If the bettor doesn’t re-raise, the other players are getting correct odds to call the raise. Neverthe¬less, the net effect is that you get a lot of money into the pot when you are a big favorite and your opponents have weak draws.
You will find that your opponents in low-limit hold’em will not be as observant as those in higher limit games. However, most people remember being check-raised. If you use the check-raise often on the flop, some of your opponents will become hesitant to bet into you for fear of being check-raised. This can be a sig¬nificant advantage for you, as in the following example. You call in middle position with
8♦ 7♦
and the flop comes
A♥ 9♦ 3♣
Everybody, including you, checks to the player on the button. If he bets, you can’t call because you didn’t get any of the flop. However, he remembers your check-raising him twice during this session, so he checks his A5, and the turn comes
6♦
Now you are happy to call a bet on the turn as you have picked up an open-end straight-flush draw! Admittedly, this is an exceptional case (you caught the best card you could have hoped for), but any time you get a free card with a hand that couldn’t call a bet, you have gained a significant advantage. In this case, the specter of your check-raising got you the free card.
The problem with the check-raise.
When you decide to check-raise, you must be fairly sure that somebody behind you will bet. If you check with the intent of raising but nobody bets, a terrible thing has happened: you have given a free card. This is another reason why you have to watch and study your opponents. In the first example above, you would really like to check-raise. However, if the alternatives are betting out immediately or having it checked around the table, then you should of course bet.
Sometimes the reputation that you get for check-raising works to your disadvantage - people are unwilling to bet for fear that you will check-raise! This is good when you have a bad hand with which you’d like to get a free card. It’s bad when you have a good hand and want to check-raise. Since you could use a free card more often than you have a check-raising hand, it’s OK that your opponents are intimidated. However, if your check-raise is to work, you must be confident that at least one of your oppo¬nents is prepared to bet.
Note: in a very small number of public cardrooms and casinos, check-raising is not permitted. It is also prohibited in some home games. If so, your only potent weapon to use up front is gone. You must play extremely tightly in front, and bet all your good hands immediately. Hold’em without the check-raise is a crippled game.

Surfing internet I’ve found an extremely useful odds chart. It seems to me every poker player who is tending to earn on poker should know this by heart

I’ve reread my previous messages… Hmmm, I realized that the “hints” I used to state here are mostly like finger-alphabet… Those who could read them know this for sure. And those who haven’t met this in their everyday live can’t understand anything…
So I decided to explain some poker concepts once again. And I hope I’ll be more precise this time.
Anyway I’m ready to hear your comments and make necessary corrections.
The first thing I would like to deal with is mathematical expectation. The term comes from probability theory and indicates the mean value of the random variable in many identical experiments.
Poker plays can also be analyzed in terms of expectation. You may think that a particular play is profitable, but sometimes it may not be the best play because an alternative play is more profitable. Let’s say you have a full house in five-card draw. A player ahead of you bets. You know that if you raise, that player will call. So raising appears to be the best play. However, when you raise, the two players behind you will surely fold. On the other hand, if you call the first bettor, you feel fairly confident that the two players behind you will also call. By raising, you gain one unit, but by only calling you gain two. Therefore, calling has the higher positive expectation and is the better play.
Here is a similar but slightly more complicated situation. On the last card in a seven-card stud hand, you make a flush. The player ahead of you, whom you read to have two pair, bets, and there is a player behind you still in the hand, whom you know you have beat. If you raise, the player behind you will fold. Furthermore, the initial bettor will probably also fold if he in fact does have only two pair; but if he made a full house, he will reraise. In this instance, then, raising not only gives you no positive expectation, but it’s actually a play with negative expectation. For if the initial bettor has a full house and reraises, the play costs you two units if you call his reraise and one unit if you fold.
Taking this example a step runner: If you do not make the flush on the last card and the player ahead of you bets, you might raise against certain opponents! Following the logic of the situation when you did make the flush, the player behind you will fold, and if the initial bettor has only two pair, he too may fold. Whether the play has positive expectation (or less negative expectation than folding) depends upon the odds you are getting for your money — that is, the size of the pot — and your estimate of the chances that the initial bettor does not have a full house and will throw away two pair. Making the latter estimate requires, of course, the ability to read hands and to read players, which I discuss in later chapters. At this level, expectation becomes much more complicated than it was when you were just flipping a coin.
Mathematical expectation can also show that one poker play is less unprofitable than another. If, for instance, you think you will average losing 75 cents, including the ante, by playing a hand, you should play on because that is better than folding if the ante is a dollar.
Another important reason to understand expectation is that it gives you a sense of equanimity toward winning or losing a bet: When you make a good bet or a good fold, you will know that you have earned or saved a specific amount which a lesser player would not have earned or saved. It is much harder to make that fold if you are upset because your hand was outdrawn. However, the money you save by folding instead of calling adds to your winnings for the night or for the month. I actually derive pleasure from making a good fold even though I have lost the pot.
Just remember that if the hands were reversed, your opponent would call you, and as we remember from the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, this is one of your edges. You should be happy when it occurs. You should even derive satisfaction from a losing session when you know that other players would have lost much more with your cards.

PREDICTABLE PLAYERS

The average player
The average player does not do anything too extreme, he likes to play, but he is not overly aggressive with his hand nor does he play too passively. He will bet when he has a good hand, he will raise when he has a great hand, he will call when he has a passable hand, and he will fold when he has a poor hand. The average player will give himself excuses to stay in the hand rather than fold. The average player may be different at different limits. The average player in a $20/$40 game is a better player than the average player in a $5/$10 game. The average player in a $20/$40 game knows to play a little bit tighter (although he will still play too many hands) and knows a few tricks such as raising with a flush draw on the flop, although he may not know exactly why it may be a good play. The average player in a 5/10 game does not do anything overtly stupidly like call two raises with 96o, but he plays even more hands than the average player in a 20/40 game. The average player will put in a bluff now and then but not all that often. When he raises, you can usually count on him having a premium hand.
The calling station
The calling station likes to play along, and follow with everyone else. He does not want to disturb the game and perturb any of his fellow comrades by unnecessarily raising. When the calling station bets, you know he thinks he has a good hand. When the calling station raises, you better run for your life, because he has a monster. The calling station will play many hands, has no problem limping in while in early position, calling a professional player’s early position raise, or calling a bet when he has a pair of 8’s when there are three overcards on the board. Beware, the calling station could be unintentionally trying to rope-a-dope you. If you play too aggressively into him without a made hand, he will simply call you down with a middle pair or a bottom pair. You do not want to bluff the calling station because he thinks it is a social game like the one in his hometown where everyone plays just about every hand to the River and show the winning hand. He is our friend and as our friend, he will not get scared by your actions, he thinks you are his friend as well. A calling station is always a bad player.
The rock
Strangely enough, the rock and the calling station have some similarities. Like the calling station, the rock will only bet with good hands and only raise with very strong hands. As with the calling station, you must be very careful when the rock bets or raises. It is important to give both the calling station and the rock respect when they show aggression. That is where the similarities end. The calling station plays a lot of hands, while the rock plays very few hands. The rock may sit there for hours folding his starting hands and will have no problems folding his blinds. He is the prime candidate to steal the blinds from, but when he does play a hand, watch out. The rock usually thinks he is a better player than the average player. He values patience above all else, and since he is the most patient at the table, he usually thinks he is the best. In some games, he may be right. Some rocks will open up their game when they lose a few bad beats because they cannot believe the worse players are beating them, but most of them will have more discipline, which is why they were rocks to begin with. A rock is typically a good player, although he will not extract as much edge out of the game as better players will, a rock would not be defined as a sharp player. Rocks can be long term winners in low limit games and some middle limit games, but they will need to expand their game and creativity in order to win in the higher limit games.
The solid player
The solid player is a player who has some idea of correct play. He knows he needs to be patient to win at this game, but he is not overly tight. He will play more hands than a rock and he will usually be aggressive when he does play. If he raises from early position, he is predictable because he will have a quality hand. If he open-raises from late position, his hand will be harder to predict because he understands he can loosen up in that position and he is not afraid to try to steal the blinds. You normally want to avoid the solid player when he is raising. He may not bluff or semi-bluff enough because he does not usually take too many chances. Some players will play like a solid player only to morph into a different type of player after a while at the table. The solid player is a good player.
UNPREDICTABLE PLAYERS
The loose aggressive player
The loose aggressive player likes to play a lot of hands. Unlike the calling station, he likes to play them with raises instead of calls. He will raise and bet when his cards are warranted, but he may sometimes bet and raise when it is not clear that he has the best hand at the moment. The loose aggressive player likes to bet on the come. He will use the free card raise as often as he can, even if he just has overcards. Once he raises for the free card, he oftentimes feels compelled to keep betting due to the perceived weakness of his opponents if they are just calling him. It may feel necessary to rope-a-dope the aggressive player by flat out calling him instead of scaring him off with a raise or a re-raise. At times you may feel that he has just enough to go toe-to-toe with you even though you have the nut hand. The loose aggressive player is always trying to steal the blinds, even from middle position. He will bluff more often than the average player and he loves the semi-bluff concept and overdoes it. Because he plays so many hands and is aggressive with them, it may be harder to predict his holdings. They may sometimes run you over when they actually have the goods. Loose aggressive players are usually not good players, however they can get in some streaks where it may seem like they are the best player around.
The maniac
The maniac is Mr. Hyde to the loose aggressive player’s Dr. Jekyll. The maniac is completely out of control and raises sometimes even without looking at his hole cards. Everyone is licking their chops to get a piece of this guy. Maniacs will raise and bluff way too often and they will usually lose their money quickly. Maniacs may not play like maniacs all the time. Sometimes players who are just having a bad day turn into maniacs when they are on full tilt. This can happen after they have been dealt a couple of bad beats which could lead them to play very aggressively in order to get back to even. The maniac is a horrible player.
The professional players
The professional players are the best players and the ones that you least like to see at your table. They could be playing poker as their main source of income or they could be playing it as a supplemental income. They are playing poker mostly to win unlike other players who may be playing for the gamble, the entertainment or just the competition. Professional players understand the importance of playing aggressively when they have a solid hand and they also understand the importance of choosing their hands selectively. They will try to extract the most amount of edge from their opponents when they have the best of it, but try to get away cheaply when they have the worst of it. Professional players have thought about and studied the game, be it through reading, talking to other players or just thinking about the game. Professional players will still have a wide range of characteristics in their style. Some will be more aggressive than others, some will bluff a bit more than others. Of course, there are always those who consider themselves as professional players who really are not.
Players can change styles depending on if they are winning or losing
There are players who will try to play solidly when they first sit down, and continue to play solidly if they start off winning. But some players can change their styles drastically if they start to lose, particularly if they take a bad beat. All of a sudden, these players will go from playing solid to being a bit more aggressive, semi-bluff and bluff more. If they continue to lose and get some of their bluffs called, or better yet, get another bad beat, they could wind up opening up their game and could turn into a maniac-type of player.
This is one of the situations where having played with the player in the past and knowing this particular characteristic is very useful. If it is the first time you ever played with him and he plays like this, you may assume this is how he plays and use that information the second time you play at the same table with him. But the second time around, he may be running good and playing solidly, in which case, your perception of him will be completely off.

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To play poker well, you must understand the terms odds, pot odds, and implied odds. Let’s be sure that you grasp each term thoroughly before we go on.

Probability and odds
“Probability” is the likelihood of an event happening. It is a number between zero and one, and is often expressed as a percentage. For instance, a .70 probability of rain today is the same as a 70% chance of rain.
“Odds” are another way of expressing probability and are more applicable to games of chance such as poker. Odds are shown as a pair of numbers separated by a colon; the pair represents a ratio between the probability of an event happening and its not happening. Being somewhat whimsical, we could say (from our example above) that rain is a 7:3 “favorite” today. That is, the odds of rain are 7:3 in its favor; for every seven times it rains on a day like today, there will be three dry days. The opposite of favorite is “underdog” (or “dog” for short). If you say, “That team is a 5:2 underdog,” you mean that for every two times they win in this situation, they will lose Five.
What do odds mean to betting? Let’s consider the weather forecast above. You and a friend decide to bet on whether it will rain. Given that you know rain is a 7:3 favorite, what is a “fair” bet? If you choose to bet on rain, and your friend bets on no rain, you should put up $7 for each $3 he wagers. Over 10 days, it will probably rain seven times. You will collect $3 from your friend on each rainy day for a total of $21. On the remaining three days, it will not rain. Your friend will collect $7 from you on each dry day for a total of $21. Thus, on any given day, one of you will pay the other, but in the long run, you will both expect to break even. Now, suppose you can find somebody willing to put up $4 for each $7 you bet, but you know that rain is indeed a 7:3 favorite. You still lose $21 on the three dry days, but you collect $4 each of the seven rainy days for a total of $28. In 10 average days, you make a $7 profit! This book will teach you to find and exploit opportunities where you have a similar edge over your opponents.
Let’s look at a hold’em example. Suppose you have flopped a heart flush draw. That is, you have two hearts in your hand, and two more come on the flop. What are the odds of making your flush on the next card (the turn)? There are a total of 13 hearts in the deck; you have seen four of them, leaving nine more. You have seen a total of five cards (your two plus three in the flop). That leaves 47 unseen cards, of which nine are the hearts you want to see. There are 38 cards that do not make your flush and nine that do; the odds are 38:9 “against.” You are a 38:9 (slightly worse than 4:1) underdog to make your flush on the turn.

Pot odds
Pot odds are the odds being offered to you by the pot compared to the amount of money you must invest in it. For instance, suppose after the river card is turned up, there is $30 in the pot. Your opponent bets $6. The pot now has $36 in it, and you have to call $6 to see his hand. You are getting pot odds of 6:1. You will also hear the expression “the pot is laying you 6:1.” Now your choice is (relatively) easy: if you are no worse than a 6:1 underdog to win the pot, you call the $6; otherwise you fold.
Pot odds also apply to draws. Suppose you have a draw that is a 3:1 underdog to be made. For you to call a bet there should be at least three times as much money in the pot as the amount you must call. Of course, that includes any bets that precede your call. For instance, if the pot contains $15 and your opponent bets $6, the pot now contains $21 and is laying you 3.5:1. Since you are only a 3:1 underdog, you can call.

Implied odds
Going a step beyond pot odds are implied odds. More accurately, they might be called implied pot odds. When you compute pot odds, you can only consider the money that’s already in the pot.
The concept of implied odds lets you ask the question, “If I make the hand I’m drawing to, how much more money will I win than what’s already in the pot?”
For example, suppose you have a flush draw with one card left to come. You know you are about a 4:1 underdog to make your flush. There is $16 in the pot, and your opponent bets $6. The pot (now $22) is laying you about 3.7:1, but you’re a 4:1 dog to make your flush. According to strict pot odds, you can’t call. However, suppose you’re “sure” that your opponent will call a $6 bet on the river if you make your flush. Now you can act as if the pot contains $28 (what it currently contains plus the $6 more you will win if you make your flush). You can make the $6 call with your flush draw.
Of course, when considering pot odds or implied odds for a draw, you must be “sure” that you will win the pot if you make your draw. If you’re not sure, then the pot must lay you a higher price to make your draw correct. Also, when considering implied odds, you must be just as sure that your opponent will call your bet after you have made your hand.

You know playing poker you face different situations. Sometimes you’re so lucky. Seems that you could raise any hand on preflop and win a cap on the river getting a straight.
But at the same time you could catch another streak. You will have you pocket aces all night long and you will be beaten by an idiot with 27o and his two pairs.
If this happens I usually reread this abstract from Internet Texas Hold’em. Winning Strategies from an Internet Pro by Matthew Higler.
Let me introduce it to you.

Poker is a game of skill. This is not easy to explain to people who do not understand the game, but good poker players will win the money.
Good Poker Players = The MONEY
However, there is one huge caveat in this equation. That caveat is time. Good poker players will win the money given enough time.
Good Poker Players = The MONEY…given TIME
In any one hand, the odds are pretty even for everybody. Over an hour, the better poker players have a little advantage, but could easily lose a lot. In a session of eight hours, a good poker player will win the majority of the time, but not all the time. If a good poker player plays 100 hours of $20-$40 limit Hold’em, he could win as much as $20,000. But once in a blue moon, he might lose $10,000. A good poker player could only break even after 1400 hours of play. Given any time below that, he could possibly lose.
As you can see, a good poker player will win given enough time, but it may not be as easy as it seems in a short time period. Granted, these are extreme cases, but they can happen. What happens in between the extremes is a lot of short-term fluctuations, which can frequently last several days, sometimes several weeks, and even several months. We will talk more about these fluctuations in the “Bankroll Management” chapter.
It is important to realize that there are subtle differences between a good poker player and a bad one that take effect over time. The beauty of poker is that the bad players always remember the limes they had some good short-term luck, so they keep coming back for more until they eventually go broke.
However, understanding how to play good poker is not enough to win the money. You must APPLY this knowledge at all times. Poker is a fun and exhilarating game, but there is nothing more frustrating than outplaying an opponent only to lose money to him,
MANY players begin to play badly when things do not go their way. This is commonly referred to as tilt. However, I don’t think tilt fully explains the range of emotions. Of course, the first step is preventing yourself from going on tilt, but there is a big difference between playing your “A” game and going on tilt. Many players may not go on full tilt, but they begin to play just a few more hands or make a few more calls than they should. This often happens late at night when a player is trying to get back to even before going to bed. Good players realize that they can always get hack to even the next day.
I expect that the difference between the expert players and the good players is their emotional control. You must have discipline to be successful playing poker.
So remember:
Good Disciplined Poker Players = The MONEY…given TIME

And remember also that poker is not blackjack. You are playing against usual people not a system. And if you perform better poker you are going to win the money.
Arnold Snyder who plays blackjack professionally could state in many his articles that you shall not win. But laying poker you may be sure that being a Good Disciplined Poker Player you will win. And it doesn’t matter how long it will take you.
You will win.
If you play poker you will win.
If you’re ready to improve your poker skills you will win.
At long last…

I’ve noticed that in my previous posts I’ve used some terms that are really important to know.
First of all it’s expected value.
The term comes from the probability theory.
You are in a restaurant looking at a menu. You see two entrees that you like equally, but one is cheaper than the other. You decide to order the cheaper one because you will be just as happy with it. You have just made a decision based on the comparison of the expected value of the two entrees.
You are driving on a highway during rush hour. Your lane seems to be going slower than the lane to your left. The first chance you get, you switch over to the left lane so you can get home faster. You have just made a decision based on the comparison of the expected value of the two lanes.
You are playing poker. The pot is very big, but your hand is mediocre. On the last round of betting, you say “ah, what the heck, I’m going to call, the pot is just too big.” You have just made a decision based on the perceived expected value using information about the size of the pot and the strength of your hand.
Expected value is a concept that everybody uses in their daily lives, although they may not realize it. Whenever we have a choice, we use expected value to guide us on our decision. Sometimes the value of the choices are not purely monetary as it could be based on happiness, a term that academics like to call utility. Usually there is no need to use a formula to calculate the expected value of a decision, but there are some cases where the use of calculating expected value will show us something that is counterintuitive or simply show us why a certain idea is correct or incorrect. It can also help us to pinpoint what factors we need to consider when we are playing poker.
Expected value (EV) is a term used to describe the value of an event over the course of all possibilities. It is an easy way to describe situations that can have many different results, and shows the average result over all the probabilities. A simple example involves a basketball player at the free throw line. If the basketball player has made 750 free throws out of 1000 free throw attempts, you could estimate that he has a 75% chance of making a free throw attempt. Then you can say the EV of the number of points that he will score on one free throw attempt is 0.75. He will either make the free throw and score one point or miss the free throw and not score a point, but on average, he is expected to score 0.75 points with one free throw. The concept of EV is used throughout this book to demonstrate the values of certain poker plays and ideas. This section shows how EV can be calculated and demonstrates how it can be used, in preparation for its usage throughout this book.
The way to calculate the EV of an event is to take all possible events and assign a probability and a result to them. The sum of the probabilities will equal 100%, and the sum of each individual result multiplied by its probability will equal the EV. If the EV of the event is a positive number, we can say the event has a positive expectation or positive value. If the EV of the even is a negative number, we can say the event has a negative expectation or negative value.
Here’s an example in Hold’em
You are playing $10-$20 Hold’em and the pot is currently $80 after the Turn card.. You have an open-ended straight draw and you are 100% sure your opponent has a hand that you will not beat unless you make a straight. But if you do hit your straight, you will win the hand. You believe there is a 17% chance that you will make your straight and a 83% chance that you will not. (In the chapters on Outs and Pot Odds, I will go into further detail on how to estimate your chances of winning and losing.)
Your opponent bets $20 and you must decide to call or fold. You only have $20 left in your stack, and if you call, you cannot lose more or win more on the River as you are considered all-in. If you call and win, you will win $100. If you call and lose, you will lose $20. You have to figure out if calling has a positive expectation.

So you expect to make $0.40 by calling, which means it is better to call than fold. Sometimes you will win $100, more often you will lose $20. However on average, you expect to make $0.40. Calculations like this are difficult for most players to do in their heads while at the poker table. In the chapter on Pot Odds, a simpler way to make the determination of calling or folding is shown. It is practical and much easier to implement, and yet it will be consistent with the EV equations. It is still useful to understand and apply the EV equations when studying the game and thinking about certain situations when not at the poker table. That is its purpose in this book, using it to study the game as opposed to using the equations directly at the table. There are simpler ways to make those calculations and not give up any accuracy.
In poker, whether they know it or not, players are always trying to put themselves into situations where they have positive EV. Good players are able to distinguish between situations that have positive EV and negative EV. When they have positive EV, they will decide to get involved in the hand. When they do not have positive EV, they will get out of the hand. Meanwhile, bad players are not able to distinguish between positive and negative EV. Thus they will often get involved in hands that have negative EV. Sometimes they will get out of hands that have positive EV. Every poker player must identify the difference between positive EV situations and negative EV situations. Once the positive EV situations are identified, the goal is identify the best play that will maximize the EV.

Every poker player has faced this situation. Every poker session you deal with it. No matter where are you playing in Vegas, Miami or California you will see this case. And every book that deals with poker explains it. But I’m still not sure. I’m talking about a hand like AK or AQ or even AKs. Of course it’s not a problem when it goes the way you like. You raise preflop, then get some calls and face one or two top pairs on flop. I like these situations most. I prefer to slowplay a little checking or calling the flop and then “banzai!!!” on turn and river. And especially I like guys who call and raise my stakes having the same pair with lower kicker. That is really very profitable. 

But the question is what shall I do if I have raised preflop and have absolutely nothing on the flop? Like I have AKo and flop is J73 rainbow… The first idea is to fold immediately. My wife prefers to play that way. She says playing low limits you could be absolutely sure that some of they guys that called your preflop had improved their hands with that flop. So in this case you have to struggle with one or even two lower pairs having nothing but implied odds. You still HOPE to get your pair (having 8 / 46 + 8 / 45 = 0.35 chances to get a pair) while they HAVE their pair already and chances to beat you. 

The other point of view is suggested by many authors. They consider the odds to be rather high related to the pot you could win in that case. So the right move in this situation is to bet or raise someone’s bet on flop. Those who prefer to bet in this situation use this line of reasoning. Let’s consider usual situation. You have AK in middle position. There are several folds before you. You raise and all the others fold except one guy. This case is the most typical. Then we have 2 to 1 chances that your opponent haven’t improved his flop too. That’s why you have very good chances to win a pot just after your bet. Considering that we bet 1 stake that forms a pot of 5 stakes the expected value of this bet is positive. Even if he calls you still have good chances to improve your hand. And bu the way you have a chance to win with ace high at showdown. And there is one more argument to perform bet here. You could do this with an overpair. If you check a flop with AK no one will call you bet when you have an overpair. So you will earn less in both cases that steals your earnings. 

Of course both this arguments are concerning the flop only. You have to think over the turn and the river weighing your opponents and the way they play their hands in order to decide whether it is worthy to bet on turn.