Win Poker

I’ve noticed that in my previous posts I’ve used some terms that are really important to know.
First of all it’s expected value.
The term comes from the probability theory.
You are in a restaurant looking at a menu. You see two entrees that you like equally, but one is cheaper than the other. You decide to order the cheaper one because you will be just as happy with it. You have just made a decision based on the comparison of the expected value of the two entrees.
You are driving on a highway during rush hour. Your lane seems to be going slower than the lane to your left. The first chance you get, you switch over to the left lane so you can get home faster. You have just made a decision based on the comparison of the expected value of the two lanes.
You are playing poker. The pot is very big, but your hand is mediocre. On the last round of betting, you say “ah, what the heck, I’m going to call, the pot is just too big.” You have just made a decision based on the perceived expected value using information about the size of the pot and the strength of your hand.
Expected value is a concept that everybody uses in their daily lives, although they may not realize it. Whenever we have a choice, we use expected value to guide us on our decision. Sometimes the value of the choices are not purely monetary as it could be based on happiness, a term that academics like to call utility. Usually there is no need to use a formula to calculate the expected value of a decision, but there are some cases where the use of calculating expected value will show us something that is counterintuitive or simply show us why a certain idea is correct or incorrect. It can also help us to pinpoint what factors we need to consider when we are playing poker.
Expected value (EV) is a term used to describe the value of an event over the course of all possibilities. It is an easy way to describe situations that can have many different results, and shows the average result over all the probabilities. A simple example involves a basketball player at the free throw line. If the basketball player has made 750 free throws out of 1000 free throw attempts, you could estimate that he has a 75% chance of making a free throw attempt. Then you can say the EV of the number of points that he will score on one free throw attempt is 0.75. He will either make the free throw and score one point or miss the free throw and not score a point, but on average, he is expected to score 0.75 points with one free throw. The concept of EV is used throughout this book to demonstrate the values of certain poker plays and ideas. This section shows how EV can be calculated and demonstrates how it can be used, in preparation for its usage throughout this book.
The way to calculate the EV of an event is to take all possible events and assign a probability and a result to them. The sum of the probabilities will equal 100%, and the sum of each individual result multiplied by its probability will equal the EV. If the EV of the event is a positive number, we can say the event has a positive expectation or positive value. If the EV of the even is a negative number, we can say the event has a negative expectation or negative value.
Here’s an example in Hold’em
You are playing $10-$20 Hold’em and the pot is currently $80 after the Turn card.. You have an open-ended straight draw and you are 100% sure your opponent has a hand that you will not beat unless you make a straight. But if you do hit your straight, you will win the hand. You believe there is a 17% chance that you will make your straight and a 83% chance that you will not. (In the chapters on Outs and Pot Odds, I will go into further detail on how to estimate your chances of winning and losing.)
Your opponent bets $20 and you must decide to call or fold. You only have $20 left in your stack, and if you call, you cannot lose more or win more on the River as you are considered all-in. If you call and win, you will win $100. If you call and lose, you will lose $20. You have to figure out if calling has a positive expectation.

So you expect to make $0.40 by calling, which means it is better to call than fold. Sometimes you will win $100, more often you will lose $20. However on average, you expect to make $0.40. Calculations like this are difficult for most players to do in their heads while at the poker table. In the chapter on Pot Odds, a simpler way to make the determination of calling or folding is shown. It is practical and much easier to implement, and yet it will be consistent with the EV equations. It is still useful to understand and apply the EV equations when studying the game and thinking about certain situations when not at the poker table. That is its purpose in this book, using it to study the game as opposed to using the equations directly at the table. There are simpler ways to make those calculations and not give up any accuracy.
In poker, whether they know it or not, players are always trying to put themselves into situations where they have positive EV. Good players are able to distinguish between situations that have positive EV and negative EV. When they have positive EV, they will decide to get involved in the hand. When they do not have positive EV, they will get out of the hand. Meanwhile, bad players are not able to distinguish between positive and negative EV. Thus they will often get involved in hands that have negative EV. Sometimes they will get out of hands that have positive EV. Every poker player must identify the difference between positive EV situations and negative EV situations. Once the positive EV situations are identified, the goal is identify the best play that will maximize the EV.

Every poker player has faced this situation. Every poker session you deal with it. No matter where are you playing in Vegas, Miami or California you will see this case. And every book that deals with poker explains it. But I’m still not sure. I’m talking about a hand like AK or AQ or even AKs. Of course it’s not a problem when it goes the way you like. You raise preflop, then get some calls and face one or two top pairs on flop. I like these situations most. I prefer to slowplay a little checking or calling the flop and then “banzai!!!” on turn and river. And especially I like guys who call and raise my stakes having the same pair with lower kicker. That is really very profitable. 

But the question is what shall I do if I have raised preflop and have absolutely nothing on the flop? Like I have AKo and flop is J73 rainbow… The first idea is to fold immediately. My wife prefers to play that way. She says playing low limits you could be absolutely sure that some of they guys that called your preflop had improved their hands with that flop. So in this case you have to struggle with one or even two lower pairs having nothing but implied odds. You still HOPE to get your pair (having 8 / 46 + 8 / 45 = 0.35 chances to get a pair) while they HAVE their pair already and chances to beat you. 

The other point of view is suggested by many authors. They consider the odds to be rather high related to the pot you could win in that case. So the right move in this situation is to bet or raise someone’s bet on flop. Those who prefer to bet in this situation use this line of reasoning. Let’s consider usual situation. You have AK in middle position. There are several folds before you. You raise and all the others fold except one guy. This case is the most typical. Then we have 2 to 1 chances that your opponent haven’t improved his flop too. That’s why you have very good chances to win a pot just after your bet. Considering that we bet 1 stake that forms a pot of 5 stakes the expected value of this bet is positive. Even if he calls you still have good chances to improve your hand. And bu the way you have a chance to win with ace high at showdown. And there is one more argument to perform bet here. You could do this with an overpair. If you check a flop with AK no one will call you bet when you have an overpair. So you will earn less in both cases that steals your earnings. 

Of course both this arguments are concerning the flop only. You have to think over the turn and the river weighing your opponents and the way they play their hands in order to decide whether it is worthy to bet on turn.