Win Poker

When calculating odds, you need to use the number of discounted outs that will help you win the hand. As discussed before, it does you no good to improve your hand only to lose to a better hand. Let’s look at some examples to see better how you determine the number of discounted outs.
You have K♦ Q♣ and the board is J♦ T♣ 5♥ 2. You have eight strong outs to the nut straight with any ace or 9 and six weak outs to the king or queen. The six outs to the king or queen are weak since your opponent could ahead; have two pair or a set or is counterfeiting your outs.
In this example, a king would give you a pair but might also give an opponent a straight, two pair, or a pair with a better kicker. Note all the hands you would lose to if a king comes: KK, JJ, TT, 55, 22, AK, AQ. KJ, KT, K5, K2, Q9, JT, J5, J2, T5, and T2. If a queen comes, you would lose to QQ, JJ, TT, 55, 22, AK, AQ, K9, QJ, QT, Q5, Q2, JT, J5, J2, T5, T2, and 98.
How much you should discount your weak outs often depends on how many opponents you are against. In the example above, you have six weak outs. Against a lone opponent, if you feel that 50% of the time a king or queen will help you win, you should discount the six weak outs to three. In this case, you would play the hand as if you had an equivalent of 11 outs to win the hand, the three discounted outs and the eight strong outs to the nut straight. If you are against two opponents, you might estimate that a king or queen would win only once every six times; therefore, you would play as if you had nine outs, eight nut outs to the straight plus the one discounted out. Against three opponents, you should probably disregard the weak outs since it is unlikely a king or queen will win. In this case, you would play only if you draw to your eight nut outs is justified. Let’s look at some more examples.
You have A♣ T♥ and the flop is K♦ T♣ 5♠. You have two strong to the ten, unless an opponent holds KT or T5. Another ace would give you two pair, but your out is counterfeited if an opponent holds AA, AK, or QJ, so you should discount the out to the ace. All your outs should be discounted slightly for the possibility that an opponent holds a set. Depending on the number of opponents and the betting sequences, you should play this hand as if you had between two and four outs.
You have A♣ 9♥ and the flop is J♦ 9♦ 4♣ with several callers on the flop. You probably are against a flush draw, so the A♦ is counterfeited. You could also lose to another ace if someone has AA or AJ. Always account for the possibility of a set.
Hint: Whenever the flop is two-suited, you should discount a suited out against a lone opponent and probably disregard the out against several opponents for the risk that one of them holds a flush draw.
A common mistake made by many players is drawing to weak hands when flush draws are likely. As a general rule, most draws are not profitable with a two-suited flop arid several callers in the hand. The only exception to this is when the pot is exceptionally large. This is a key concept since you will be playing with a two- or three-suited flop about 60% of the time! This concept is discussed further in the flop chapters. For now, simply understand that you need to discount or disregard your outs based on the likelihood that they are counterfeited.
Another consideration when determining your outs on the flop is the possibility that you could improve on the turn only to see an opponent improve to an even better hand on the river.
Hint: When drawing on the flop, you should discount your outs a little, and maybe a lot, for the probability that your opponents could draw to an even better hand on the river.
There are very few hands that are a lock to win on the turn. Nut flushes can lose to a full house if the board pairs on the river. The nut straight can lose to a flush on the river. Your two pair could lose to an opponent hitting a set. When the flop is two-suited, these types of situations occur often since there are a lot of river cards that could hurt your hand.
Most players complain about their bad luck when they improve on the turn to lose on the river. Good players recognize that these types of situations occur a lot and include this possibility in their decision-making process. Borderline draws on the flop should often be folded for the possibility that you will lose on the river.
Now that we know how to determine the number of discounted outs and calculate the odds against improving to the best hand, we can look at how to apply odds at the poker table.

Overcards are cards higher than anything on the board. Let’s consider an example. You have
K♦ Q♥
and the flop comes
9♣ 6♥ 2♦
You have two overcards - can you call a bet? Can you bet? Many poker experts say that you can bet or call a bet in this sit¬uation. However, it takes a lot of experience and knowledge to know when you can play with just overcards. A bet with two overcards is usually a semi-bluff (you’re hoping to win the pot right there, but have chances of improving to the best hand). Most low-limit games are sufficiently loose and passive that a semi-bluff won’t work, so betting is probably not correct. We believe you are not losing much by folding in this situation if there’s a bet ahead of you. If it’s checked to you, take a free card and hope you turn top pair. In the situation above, if a queen or king falls on the turn, you probably have the best hand and can bet (or even raise).
Expert players are able to make some money with two overcards, but you are not giving up much by dropping them unless you have other possibilities (which we discuss below). Misplaying those overcards once or twice will cost you more than you could make by playing them correctly a dozen times. The problem with overcards is that you can win a little or lose a lot. Most of the time, you’ll have to throw them away on the turn because they don’t improve. Therefore, to make a profit with them, you must play aggressively when they do hit on the turn. If you pick the wrong time to do this, you may be raising with the worst hand. This is an area where you can improve your re¬sults by limiting your mistakes. Until you have a lot of hold’em under your belt and understand your opponents well, you can best limit your mistakes by staying out of these situations.
When you can play overcards
There are some situations in which you can call a bet with over¬cards:
Backdoor flush or straight possibilities. For instance, you have A♠-T♠ and the flop comes 9♥-6♠-2♣. Now you can call a bet since an ace or ten may give you the best hand, and another spade on the turn gives you the nut flush draw. If you’re hoping to make a backdoor straight, the turn should possibly give you an open end draw to the nuts. For instance, you have Q♣-J♣ and the flop comes 9♥-4♠-3♦. Again, you could make top pair on the turn, and a ten will give you a draw to two different nut straights. The higher your cards, the better, so if you do make the top pair on the turn, you will have fewer chances for an overcard to your top pair falling on the river.

A-K overcards on the flop
AK (often called “Big Slick”) is one of the most difficult hands to play if it “misses” the flop. You will either make top pair or two overcards with it, so you often find yourself wanting to con¬tinue with it, almost regardless of the flop. Do not fall victim to this trap. If you’re going to call with two overcards, AK is the hand with which to do it, but choose your places carefully. Look for situations where you’re virtually certain that hitting your pair will be good, you have backdoor draws, or suspect that an oppo¬nent is betting a draw. Furthermore, it is almost never correct to call a bet on the turn with an unpaired AK, unless you’ve picked up some other draw.
Once in a great while, you can raise with AK when it doesn’t pair on the flop, particularly if you suspect that the bettor doesn’t have a good hand. On rare occasions, this may cause the bettor to fold immediately, or at least get you a free turn card. If you are re-raised, or the bettor calls and then bets the turn, you are done with the hand. Realize that this is a deceptive play, and such plays have limited use in most low-limit games. Many players can not give up AK until the river fails to pair them; a classic tip-off is when somebody raises pre-flop and then passively calls a bet on the flop. If you detect such behavior, be prepared to bet hands that you might otherwise check on the turn; don’t give the two overcards a free chance to beat you.

A word of warning
In tighter games, you can use the flop to decide the chances that you’re up against two pair already. However, in a no fold’em hold’em game, many players are capable of showing you any two cards. For instance, in a tighter hold’em game you’d be more inclined to play overcards with a flop of T-5-2 since it would be unlikely somebody already had two pair. In lower limit games, you will see people win big pots with T5. This is another reason why it’s a marginal play to continue with just overcards in low-limit hold’em games.
You will routinely see your opponents continue playing (even calling a raise cold) with two overcards to the flop. You will also occasionally be sitting on the sidelines watching when your overcards would have made the best hand. Have faith, and throw them away the next time, too. For low-limit hold’em players, flopping two overcards is a marginal case of our next topic: what to do when the flop misses you completely.

Playing When the Flop Misses You
In completing our discussion of how to play on the flop, we need to remind you that this, unfortunately, will be the most frequent result of the flop: you get a very small piece of it, or less.
You’ll flop second or bottom pair with no overcards. Three to a Hush or straight and nothing else. One overcard. Your opponents will routinely call a bet in this situation, hoping to pick up a little more on the turn. This is where decisive action can save you a lot of money:
Fold and be done with it.
We have discussed essentially every case in which you can play beyond the flop. Every other time, your pre-flop investment is gone. Forget about it. Watch the rest of the hand. See how your opponents play, figure out what you would do in a similar situa¬tion. Get up and stretch, drink a glass of water. However, do not just throw in a loose call on the flop to see what happens next. This discipline alone will take you a long way toward becoming a winning hold’em player.