Archive for July, 2006

Playing When You Flop a Complete Hand

Monday, July 31st, 2006

Every once in a great while, you will be fortunate enough to flop a “complete” hand - straight or better.

When you flop a straight
This is the weakest of the complete hands, and is vulnerable to the most draws. Therefore, you want to play a flopped straight fast. Also, any time you flop a complete hand, your opponents will be slow to give you credit for it - you may get almost un¬limited raises from two pair or a set. Consider the following ex¬ample: you have
9♣ 8♣
in late position. There are three calls in front of you; the button and both blinds call. Now the flop comes
6♥ 5♦  7♥
There is a bet and two calls in front of you. Many players would just call in this situation - that’s a mistake - you should definitely raise. There are already nine bets in the pot, and there are many cards you don’t want to see on the turn. If any heart or five through nine falls on the turn, you no longer have the nuts. Furthermore, if somebody has flopped a set or two pair, he may choose to slow play it (which is also a mistake, though in this case it’s to his benefit). Your raise may cause him to re-raise im¬mediately and you re-raise again. Note that this puts enormous pressure on heart draws and hands like T♦-8♦, which is impor¬tant. Of course, playing this fast on the flop will knock out some players who have little or no chance to beat you. You’re better off paying that price and forcing draws to pay a premium. If you flop an ace high straight and there are no flush draws that worry you, you can slow down a little bit. If you have A♠-Q♠ and the flop is K♥-J♦-T♠, it’s OK to check and call or just flat call a bet. However, if a lot of action breaks out, you should take off the gloves and start raising yourself - if somebody has two pair or a set, you want to punish them now while you know you have the nuts. By playing slowly, you run the risk of a card such as the Q♣ falling (in which case you have to split the pot with any ace) or a very scary card like the J♥ (which makes full hous¬es possible and may give somebody a heart flush draw). The more players you have against you, the more inclined you should be to play your straight fast.
If you flop the non-nut straight (you have 8♦-7♦ and the flop comes J♠-9♦-T♣), it’s even more important to play fast. If an eight, queen, or king comes, you have essentially nothing, so you have to start swinging immediately. Even trying to check-raise is probably a mistake. Go ahead and bet, hoping you get raised so you can re-raise. If somebody has KQ (or Q8), you are going to lose some chips - you can’t give up this hand unless a cou¬ple of very scary cards hit.

When you flop a flush
This is another situation where many players make a serious mistake by not playing fast enough. If you flop anything but the nut flush, you must bet or raise to charge higher flush draws dearly. Suppose you have
Q♦ T♦
in middle position, you call along with four others, the big blind raises, and you all call. Now the flop comes
8♦ 5♦ 2♦
and the big blind bets out. Slowplaying is out of the question here. The pot is so big you’d be happy to win the whole thing right here (but that isn’t going to happen). Anybody with the A♦ or K♦ is going to call (which is correct for them). Raise imme¬diately. If somebody makes it three bets, you can flat call, but you still need to bet again on the turn if a blank comes - you don’t dare give a single bigger diamond a free card. Again, if somebody has flopped a bigger flush than you, you will lose some money. However, far more frequently you will have the best hand - but you must play it fast.
If a fourth diamond comes, you are now in a check and call sit¬uation, especially if anybody called your raise cold on the flop. There is still some chance you have the best hand, but you don’t want to call a raise with it. If a fourth of your suit comes and you have a lower flush (say eight or nine high), you may have to give it up. The fact that you most likely were well in front on the flop means nothing - throw your six card flush away if there is sig¬nificant action.
If you flop the nut flush, you can wait until the turn to raise or check-raise. However, as we discussed with the straight, if a rais¬ing war breaks out on the flop, you should start raising as well. If the board pairs, then don’t check-raise - you might be giv¬ing a full house a chance to make it three big bets. Bet out imme¬diately and hope you are called but not raised. If you are raised, you should call. Only if the board pairs twice should you be will¬ing to abandon the nut flush.

When you flop a full house
With a pocket pair, you will flop a full house a little more than 1% of the time; with two cards of different rank, about 0.1% of the time (one out of a thousand hands). In general, your only concern at this point is how to extract the most money from the hand - your chances of being beaten are minuscule. With pocket pairs, you can flop a full house in two different ways: one of your rank plus a pair, or trips on the board. Of course, you prefer the former way - in the latter case there’s always the danger that somebody has the fourth one. First, let’s consider the “set + pair” scenario. Suppose you have
8♠ 8♣
in middle position with six callers. Now the flop comes
8♥ 5♥ 5♣
This is an excellent situation for you. Of course, you hope that the other two fives are in different hands and that there is a flush draw around as well. Your hand is altogether strong enough to slow play, but you may not want to do that. If one or two players have fives, you want them to start betting and raising immediately, so you might bet or raise once to get things going. However, you don’t want to scare anybody at this point. Let other people do the raising on the flop. If you’re lucky, the turn will complete the flush, and two other people will do all the raising for you while you are just along for the ride. Things will probably slow down on the river, and that’s when you can get in your raise(s). If no flush or straight draw is possible on the flop, you should slow down a lot, hoping the turn will give some people big draws (that are probably dead).
However, once the turn comes, you should start betting and raising. A person with a flush draw will only complete it one out of five times on the river. By raising on the turn, you get these people to call, trying to make their flushes and straights. You’re delighted if they make them on the river, but usually they don’t, so you need to collect from them on the turn.
The situation is somewhat different if your set is the lower of the two ranks on the board. Suppose you have those same black eights, but the flop is
8♥ T♣ T♠
This is a wonderful flop for you, but not quite as good as the first one. Unlike the first case, there is a small, but important chance you will get out drawn. Furthermore, you will usually have to pay off some pretty big raises when you are beaten. However, until almost guaranteed otherwise, you must play this as the best hand. This time, you can’t wait to show aggression. Start betting and raising immediately on the flop - with the negligible ex¬ceptions of TT or T8, you are winning for now. Don’t hesitate to cap the betting on the flop given the opportunity. The same is true on the turn - play the hand strongly. Be willing to put in a third bet on the turn, and only get nervous if somebody puts in a fourth bet. Sometimes you lose to a bigger full house with this hand, but worrying about that very much is seeing monsters under the bed. Play it for the best hand, and just be alert for the small possibility that one of those monsters is real. If the board pairs (such as two running sixes), you will probably have to fold. Fortunately, this doesn’t happen very often, but if you have been getting a lot of action on the turn, and then the turn card pairs, your full house is almost worthless. Furthermore, you’re going to get caught in a raising war if both tens are active. Give up and get out.
If the flop is all one rank when you have a pocket pair (.24% of the time), you have an awkward situation. If you have a big pair (tens or higher), you probably have to stay with it as long as no overcards fall. If an overcard to your pair hits, you are beaten by a single one of those as well as the fourth card of the flopped rank; now you can get out if there’s a lot of action. If you have a big pair you should bet the flop to avoid giving bigger cards a free card. Also, in this situation, almost anybody who has flopped the quads is going to slow-play. Use bets and raises on the flop to figure out who is willing to stick around. For instance, watch out for a player who calls a raise cold on the flop - pro¬ceed carefully. Plan to check and call on the turn and river - somebody with quads will probably wait for big bets to raise. If you hold two cards of different rank and flop a full house, the situation is similar to flopping top set with a smaller pair. Sup¬pose you hold
J♦ T♦
and call in middle position after two other callers. Now there is a caller behind you, a raise, and two cold calls. Everybody else calls. The flop comes
J♣ J♥  T♣
You’ve got the nuts, and the chance of your being out drawn at this point is almost nil. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that you’re going to get much action from anybody. If somebody has the case jack, he’ll play with you - other than that you have to hope that there are some straight and flush draws out. You might as well start betting with this hand - hope that the last jack is, in fact, active, and that player starts raising. Many players will stay in with their draws here even though they’re drawing dead.

Playing When You Flop Two Pair

Friday, July 28th, 2006

Note that initially we are discussing a split two pair - when you have two different ranks in your hand, and you flop one of each of them. We will discuss the “pair on the board” situation later in this chapter.
Two pair is a powerful hand that you can play quite strongly. However, it is rarely strong enough to slow play. If you are play¬ing quality hands, your two cards will be close to each other in rank (AXs being the obvious exception). That means that if you flop two pair you have to worry about a straight draw, if not a made straight. Adding the possibility of a flush draw, you have a hand that demands to be played fast; you need to reduce the odds for drawing hands.

When you flop top two pair
Suppose you have
J♦ T♦
and the flop comes
J♣ T♥ 5♥
You can be almost certain that you have the best hand right now.1 However, you are susceptible to lots of draws. You are es¬sentially even money with somebody who has
K♥ Q♥
Remember also that in low-limit games, the pot has already got¬ten big. You should do whatever you think will get the most money in the pot on the flop. If you think that a player behind you will raise, bet out immediately and hope you get to re-raise. If you think somebody will bet but not raise, check-raise. Of course, this is a situation where you don’t want to give a free card, so if there’s any doubt in your mind, bet.
If somebody puts in a third or fourth raise on the flop, you need to consider the possibility that he has a set. Now it might be cor¬rect to check and call on the turn and river. If you put in the last raise on the flop, you can bet this hand all the way to the end if the board is not threatening. For instance, suppose the final board is J♣-T♥-5♥-8♦-7♥. You should definitely bet when the 8♦ hits on the turn, but the 7♥ on the river is a terrifying card, as any nine makes a straight, and a flush is possible. You should check, and call if there is no raise. If there’s a raise, you’d have to fold here.
Even if the flop is J♣-T♥-7♥ (which makes a straight possible), you should play this hand aggressively. If somebody has a straight, he will probably let you know it quickly (he will be afraid of the flush draw as well). Again, in this situation, you can back off and just call bets. The board will have to become very scary before you should drop this hand.

When you flop “top and bottom” or bottom two pair
These hands are still strong, but they are vulnerable to the board pairing and draws. Suppose you have
7♣ 6♣
And the flop comes
Q♦ 7♥ 6♠
If another queen hits, you have just about nothing (but can at least fold with a clear conscience). Therefore, it’s all the more important that you get your bets in on the flop. Also, don’t be so eager to re-raise a second or third time as you would with top two pair. In the situation above, you’d like to believe that nobody was playing Q7o, but in low-limit hold’em, your opponents will routinely show you that (and Q6o, too).
As we discussed before, you should normally be playing cards that are fairly close in rank. Thus, you won’t be flopping top and bottom pair too often, with the occasional exception of AXs. When you flop two pair with that hand, play it fast. Many low-limit players will play any hand that contains an ace, and you could quite conceivably be up against the other two aces. If that’s the case, you can make a lot of money, and you don’t want to give them free cards with which to make a bigger two pair or pair the middle card on the flop. This also insures that you’ll be charging the straight and flush draws as much as possible.

Two pair with a pair on the board
This situation is far less desirable than a split two pair. For in¬stance, you have raised with
Q♣ Q♦
and the flop comes
T♥ 8♠ 8♥
Unfortunately, in low-limit games, many players are willing to play almost any two cards, so it’s hard to figure the probability of somebody having an eight. There is one obvious consideration - the more opponents you have, the more likely it is that one of them has flopped trips. If the entire table takes the flop, and there’s lots of action, you must get out. While you may have the best hand, you can’t play it with any degree of cer¬tainty, and somebody with an eight may just wait and then check-raise you on the river.
In the above situation, it’s worthwhile for you to bet on the flop, hoping to win the pot right there. However, if you get called, you have to slow down. You could be up against somebody with a ten, which is fine, but you also may have run into an eight. You should now check on the turn, but be prepared to call a bet on the river. Somebody may represent an eight and you can catch the bluff, but don’t give somebody who really does have an eight the opportunity to raise you on the expensive bets.2 Note that betting on the turn and river is a lose-lose situation for you. If you have the best hand, nobody can call you (for fear of the third eight). If you don’t have the best hand, you’ll get called or raised. If you bet the flop, and check the turn, you should be prepared to call a bet on the river if you don’t have a lot of opponents and no over¬cards to your pair have fallen. If they check to you again on the river after you’ve checked the turn, you should bet. One final thought about this situation: many players would never raise with an eight on the flop - they would wait until the turn to raise. If that’s the sort of player you’re up against and he raises on the flop, then you can treat your queens as the best hand and keep betting.
Obviously, if the board is paired over your pocket pair, you can fold at the first opportunity. In this case, you might not win even if you catch your miracle card.
The situation is similar if you pair one of your cards, and the oth¬er two cards are a pair. For instance, you have A♦-J♣ and the flop comes J♠-6♥-6♦. You can play it as you would the first ex¬ample. However, note that if you catch your miracle card (anoth¬er jack), you will now terrify somebody with a six, and he will just check and call, if that. Furthermore, you have to split the pot with the case jack if somebody has it. Therefore, this hand is even weaker than the first example and should be treated as such.

What to do when you flop top pair with a medium/bad kicker

Friday, July 28th, 2006

The most common way this can happen is when you have Axs, hoping to get a flush draw, and just an ace flops. For instance, you have
A♥ 6♥
one in front of the button. Five people call in front of you, you call, and then the button calls. Now the flop comes
A♠ T♦ 5♣
You have flopped top pair, but you can’t like it very much. You have six opponents, and if any of them has an ace, you are prob¬ably out-kicked. In a situation like this, if there is much action, you will have to get out. Sometimes when you get out, you will later discover that you had the best hand on the flop, but that will be the exception. If there is a bet and raise in front of you, you should probably drop right there and save yourself further an¬guish. If there is a bet and a lot of callers, the decision is less clear, but you should probably still fold.
If there is a bet and you are first to act after the bettor (players between you folded or the bettor is on your immediate right), you might want to raise. This is a positional raise designed to get you a free card. On your best days, everybody but the original bettor will fold, and he will check to you on the turn. You then check as well. You hope that he will continue to check on the riv¬er, but you should probably call a bet if he bets on the end. If the bettor re-raises on the flop, you can probably drop your hand right then.
Note that we did not recommend calling in this situation. This is an excellent example of tight-aggressive play. Either get out, or use your position to get a free card if possible. There is one ex¬ception to this. If the bettor is a maniac or a habitual bluffer, you might do well to simply call all the way. If he is bluffing, you will win more money by letting him continue to believe his bluff might work. If he has a better hand, then you lose less by not rais¬ing.
If you are in late position and it’s checked to you, go ahead and bet, but hope that all your opponents fold. If not, maybe you’ll gain a free turn card. If you’re called on the flop, prepare to check all the way from there. If you check the turn and some¬body bets on the river, you should probably call if the board doesn’t look too scary.
If you are in early position with such a hand, you may simply have to check and fold if there is significant action behind you. You have no position to use, and you cannot be the least bit sure you have the best hand. If everybody checks on the flop and the turn is not threatening, go ahead and bet, hoping to win the pot right there. If you are called, check on the river and hope the hand is checked through. However, you probably want to call a bet on the river in this situation. Many of your opponents will au¬tomatically bet top pair on the flop and assume you will, too. Since you didn’t bet on the flop, they will assume that second pair is good (or may be bluffing completely). If you are raised on the turn, you can probably fold (note that it will cost you two big bets to get to the showdown now). This whole discussion points out perfectly our concept of the dominated hand. You will be sorely tempted to call bets (and raises) all the way to the river with your top-pair-no-kicker hand, and yet time after time you will get shown a pair of aces with a better kicker. In the long run, especially against many oppo¬nents, you will come out ahead by dropping that hand as soon as it misses its flush draw. Note that if you get one of your flush cards on the flop, you are in a different situation. Suppose you have
A♦ 4♦
and call on the button after six others have called. If the flop is
A♠ 9♦ 5♣
you should call a bet on the flop. If the turn is a diamond, you have picked up the nut flush draw, and can easily call a bet. If you do not pick up your flush draw (or otherwise improve) on the turn, you are back to the earlier situation and probably have to drop.
An alternative in the above situation is to raise on the flop, and then plan to check the turn. Once you’ve done that, you will probably need to call a bet on the river, as your check on the turn may well induce somebody to bet.

How you should play when you flop top pair with a good kicker

Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

This is generally a very good flop for you. Suppose you have raised with
A♣ J♣
in late position, four other players have called, and there has been no other raise. The flop comes
J♦ 9♥ 2♥
You probably have the best hand right now. However, there are a lot of things than can go wrong. If the turn card is
K♥
you will have to fold if there’s any substantial action. Therefore, you want to raise immediately on the flop, and make it expensive for flush draws and overcards to stick around. Even if the board is less threatening (for instance, J♦-6♥-3♣), you still want to raise on the flop. This may get out hands like KQ, which you would like to do. If it’s checked to you, bet. If you’re in early position and you get the first flop, you have a problem. You would like to check-raise, but you must be very sure that somebody will bet. You definitely don’t want to give a free card to somebody with KQ or two hearts. If somebody in late position raised before the flop, he may well bet on the flop, giving you the opportunity to check-raise. If you are the first per¬son to act after the raiser, this would be a perfect time to check-raise, as you have a good chance of making it a heads-up contest.
If you were the preflop raiser, be more inclined to bet (rather than check-raise) on the flop if the flop hits you. Being the pre-flop raiser, you’re almost expected to bet, and this gives you the chance to re-raise if somebody raises behind you.
Note that if you have K♣-J♦ and the flop comes K♦-8♥-3♣, the check-raise is an excellent play because you aren’t afraid of an overcard (except an ace) on the turn. If it’s checked around, that’s unfortunate, but not likely to be catastrophic. It may also confuse your opponents when you bet on the turn. For instance, if the turn is the T♦, somebody with a ten may call you both on the turn and the river, not believing you have the king.
Let’s return to the situation where you have A♣-J♣ and the flop is J♦-9♥-2♥. If you raise and are re-raised (or bet and are raised), you must decide how to continue. If you think that raising again will limit the pot to you and the raiser, it may be worth re-raising, even if you suspect he has you beaten right now. By eliminating the other players, you are giving yourself a better shot to win the pot (even though it will cost you an extra bet here). For instance, many players would stay in here with a hand like Q♥-9♦. For one bet, that would not be a terrible play. How¬ever, if you re-raise and force that person to call two bets cold, he will probably fold. By knocking him out, you save the pot for yourself if a queen, nine, or two more hearts fall.
If you don’t think you can eliminate other players or you are sure that the raiser has a strong hand, you can back off - call the raise and then check and call to the river. It will be difficult to fold in this situation unless the third flush card hits or a king or queen hits. If your opponent continues to bet into you then, you might think about dropping. However, if you call a bet on the turn, you must be absolutely sure of your opponent if you decide to fold on the river. By that time, the pot will be quite large, and you will be making a catastrophic mistake if you fold incorrect¬ly. We are not urging you to call every bet on the river. Nevertheless, an incorrect fold in this situation can be very expensive, depending on how badly you mis-estimate the odds that you are beaten versus the pot odds.

Low limits problem

Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

There is a problem in low limit poker. It’s a very annoying problem for players who play right poker. I mean if you consider pot odds and implied pot odds and make your bets according to them it may be very offensively for them to see other players winning huge pots with 75o. If the story continues they may even go on tilt with the situation.
Do you know this story well?
Have you ever seen that damn suckers at your table?
BUT they may also be right. They may be right calling you all the streets ACCORDING TO POT ODDS! And that’s the problem of low limit poker.
In low limit poker the pot will normally be quite large on the flop because there are many callers pre-flop. Furthermore, these players want to call your bets on the flop - they did not come down to the card club to fold! Assuming you have the best hand, you now have two possible scenarios:
1. If you have an excellent hand - one that is unlikely to be beaten, regardless of the turn and river cards - you are happy to have all these people calling your bets and raises.
2. If you have a good hand - one that is probably best right now, but susceptible to being beaten - you would like to eliminate as many opponents as possible. This, of course, is the much more common scenario.
The combination of a large pot and people’s desire to call puts you in a bad situation when you have a good, but beatable, hand. Your opponents’ instinct (which is to call a lot) coincides with correct play. That is, it may be correct for them to call your bet because the pot is large, but they are calling in part simply be¬cause they want to call.
Suppose, however, we make your opponents pay two bets rather than one to continue playing. Now, even with a relatively large pot, they may be making a serious mathematical mistake by call¬ing. As we have said before, this is how you make your money at low-limit hold’em.
A classic example
You are on the big blind with
A♥ Q♦
There are three callers, and then a raise in late position. You (correctly) call the raise. Now the flop comes
Q♣ 7♥ 5♠
At this point, you suspect you have the best hand. However, if you bet out immediately, you will be putting the 11th bet into the pot, making it correct for hands such as 98 and 65 to call. Oppo¬nents with those hands might well call anyway, but you want them to make a mistake by calling when they’re not getting suf¬ficient pot odds. Now suppose you check, and it’s checked to the pre-flop raiser. When he bets, you raise; the players in the middle have to call two bets cold. Instead of getting 11:1 pot odds, the player directly behind you is getting only 13:2. If he has 98 or 65, he may decide to fold rather than call two bets. If he chooses to call, you make money because the pot odds do not justify his call.
But suppose you check, and the person immediately to your left bets. Now some people call, and then you raise. If the original bettor re-raises, the other players are forced to call two (more) bets cold - another mistake. If the bettor doesn’t re-raise, the other players are getting correct odds to call the raise. Neverthe¬less, the net effect is that you get a lot of money into the pot when you are a big favorite and your opponents have weak draws.
You will find that your opponents in low-limit hold’em will not be as observant as those in higher limit games. However, most people remember being check-raised. If you use the check-raise often on the flop, some of your opponents will become hesitant to bet into you for fear of being check-raised. This can be a sig¬nificant advantage for you, as in the following example. You call in middle position with
8♦ 7♦
and the flop comes
A♥ 9♦ 3♣
Everybody, including you, checks to the player on the button. If he bets, you can’t call because you didn’t get any of the flop. However, he remembers your check-raising him twice during this session, so he checks his A5, and the turn comes
6♦
Now you are happy to call a bet on the turn as you have picked up an open-end straight-flush draw! Admittedly, this is an exceptional case (you caught the best card you could have hoped for), but any time you get a free card with a hand that couldn’t call a bet, you have gained a significant advantage. In this case, the specter of your check-raising got you the free card.
The problem with the check-raise.
When you decide to check-raise, you must be fairly sure that somebody behind you will bet. If you check with the intent of raising but nobody bets, a terrible thing has happened: you have given a free card. This is another reason why you have to watch and study your opponents. In the first example above, you would really like to check-raise. However, if the alternatives are betting out immediately or having it checked around the table, then you should of course bet.
Sometimes the reputation that you get for check-raising works to your disadvantage - people are unwilling to bet for fear that you will check-raise! This is good when you have a bad hand with which you’d like to get a free card. It’s bad when you have a good hand and want to check-raise. Since you could use a free card more often than you have a check-raising hand, it’s OK that your opponents are intimidated. However, if your check-raise is to work, you must be confident that at least one of your oppo¬nents is prepared to bet.
Note: in a very small number of public cardrooms and casinos, check-raising is not permitted. It is also prohibited in some home games. If so, your only potent weapon to use up front is gone. You must play extremely tightly in front, and bet all your good hands immediately. Hold’em without the check-raise is a crippled game.

Have you ever dreamt to work in casino?

Thursday, July 20th, 2006

Have you ever dreamt to work in casino?

A lot of money that are really close to you… And you imagine that some of them could stay right in your wallet… I suggest you to follow up with this story of my friend who had been working in casino for some time.

I am convinced that the most difficult job in the world is a casino dealer. Not long time ago I thought that it was so exciting and interesting to work in casino, to communicate with people and to earn money. But I was awfully wrong. Nothing was so simple and breathtaking in reality. A year ago I decided to find a job in a casino, as I had watched a lot of movies about it and wanted to be engaged in this field. So I found an advertisement in a newspaper with a tiny article about free croupier courses with possible employment. I had an interview with casino personnel manager, as well as many other young boys and girls. About 40 of us passed the first “exam”. The next stage was our training. Every day we were attending lessons. It was strictly forbidden to talk to each other, to be late and to ask “wrong” questions. Every week we had to pass some kind of tests, connected with calculation, cards, roulette and so on. And after every test there were fewer and fewer of us left. Some quit themselves as it was uphill for them to cope with stress situations in which our teachers placed us. The courses lasted 2 months and in the end of our training there were only 12 students left. For us it seemed like a miracle that we did it and were the best and psychologically the strongest of others, who were asked to leave. Soon we were allowed to work in the casino. And then my “nightmare” commenced. I felt like in hell, because whatever the situations were, I was always “an evil”. If the players won a lot of money, my manager looked at me as if I were a thief and spend money which was not mine. From another hand if players lost their money, they accused me that I was cheating and stealing their money straight from their pockets. And I could not handle with it. Too much stress and pressure on my head, I felt nervous even on my days-off. I was sick and tired of people and avoided communicating with them. I did my best not to show that I was on the verge of insanity. At last I understood that this job was not for me. Maybe some other people can leave this all behind and not bring their problems home, but not me. One day I just decided that I had had enough and just quit. I did not want to come back in that place any more. This place is saturated with negative energy, too much problems and conflicts. But now, looking back on those days, I only smile – it was long time ago, and it was like an “injection” for me from gambling and desire to earn easy money. I saw with my own eyes, that nothing in this world is for free and one has to pay for everything.

Hold’em Drawing Odds Chart

Wednesday, July 19th, 2006

Surfing internet I’ve found an extremely useful odds chart. It seems to me every poker player who is tending to earn on poker should know this by heart :)

Hand Type
You Have
What You Need to Win
Example
 
You Have
Board
 
 
Drawing Hands
Open End Straight Flush Draw
Straight Flush T♥9♥ J♥8♥2♠  
Gutshot Straight Flush Draw Straight Flush J♥T♥ A♥K♥2♠  
Flush Draw Flush 9♦8♦ K♦4♦2♠  
    + Open End Straight Draw Flush or Straight J♥T♥ Q♠9♥2♥  
        + 2 Overcards Flush, Straight or Top Pair
Q♥J♥ T♠9♥2♥  
        + 1 Overcard Flush, Straight or Top Pair
Q♥T♥ J♠9♥2♥  
    + Gutshot Straight Draw Flush or Straight 9♦8♦ A♦6♣5♦  
        + 2 Overcards Flush, Straight or Top Pair
A♦K♦ J♦T♠2♦  
        + 1 Overcard Flush, Straight or Top Pair
A♦T♦ Q♣J♦2♦  
    + 2 Overcards Flush or Top Pair A♦K♦ 7♦6♦2♣  
    + 1 Overcard Flush or Top Pair K♦7♦ J♦4♦2♣  
Open End Straight Draw Straight 8♠7♦ 9♣6♠2♥  
    + 2 Overcards Straight or Top Pair J♥T♣ 9♠8♥2♦  
    + 1 Overcard Straight or Top Pair J♥9♣ T♦8♠2♣  
Gutshot Straight Draw Straight T♠9♦ 7♥6♣2♠  
    + 2 Overcards Straight or Top Pair Q♥J♦ 9♣8♠2♥  
    + 1 Overcard Straight or Top Pair Q♥9♦ J♠8♣2♥  
2 Overcards Top Pair A♦K♥ 8♠6♣2♥  
1 Overcard Top Pair A♦7♥ K♣9♠2♦  
 Made Hands
Set (or trips) Quads or Full House 6♦6♥ A♣T♣6♣  
    + Flush Draw Quads, Full House or Flush
A♠A♥ A♦T♠7♠2♠  
2 Pair Full House 8♠7♦ A♥8♣7♠  
    + Flush Draw Full House or Flush A♠7♠ A♥8♠7♣2♠  
Pocket Pair Set 6♦6♥ J♠T♣2♦  
    + Flush Draw Flush or Set K♠K♥ A♠7♠2♠  
Pair (using one hole card)
Trips or 2 Pair 9♦8♠ A♦9♣2♠  
    + Flush Draw Flush, Trips or 2 Pair A♦8♦ K♦8♣2♦  
        + Open End Straight Draw Flush, Straight, or Trips 9♦8♦ 9♣7♦6♦  
        + Gutshot Straight Draw Flush, Straight, or Trips 9♦8♦ 9♣6♦5♦  
    + Open End Straight Draw Straight or Trips J♥T♣ J♦9♠8♥  
    + Gutshot Straight Draw Straight or Trips A♦K♥ A♣Q♠J♥  

 

Hand Type
You Have
Flop to Turn
Turn to River
Flop to River
 
 
Outs
Odds : 1
Outs
Odds : 1
Odds : 1
 
Drawing Hands
Open End Straight Flush Draw
2 22.5 2 22.0 10.9  
Gutshot Straight Flush Draw 1 46.0 1 45.0 22.5  
Flush Draw 9 4.22 9 4.11 1.86  
    + Open End Straight Draw 15 2.13 15 2.07 0.85  
        + 2 Overcards 21 1.24 21 1.19 0.43  
        + 1 Overcard 18 1.61 18 1.56 0.60  
    + Gutshot Straight Draw 12 2.92 12 2.83 1.22  
        + 2 Overcards 18 1.61 18 1.56 0.60  
        + 1 Overcard 15 2.13 15 2.07 0.85  
    + 2 Overcards 15 2.13 15 2.07 0.85  
    + 1 Overcard 12 2.92 12 2.83 1.22  
Open End Straight Draw 8 4.88 8 4.75 2.18  
    + 2 Overcards 14 2.36 14 2.29 0.95  
    + 1 Overcard 11 3.27 11 3.18 1.40  
Gutshot Straight Draw 4 10.8 4 10.5 5.07  
    + 2 Overcards 10 3.70 10 3.60 1.60  
    + 1 Overcard 7 5.71 7 5.57 2.59  
2 Overcards 6 6.83 6 6.67 3.14  
1 Overcard 3 14.7 3 14.3 7.01  
 Made Hands
Set (or trips) 7 5.71 10 3.60 1.99  
    + Flush Draw     19 1.42    
2 Pair 4 10.8 4 10.5 5.07  
    + Flush Draw     13 2.54    
Pocket Pair 2 22.5 2 22.0 10.9  
    + Flush Draw 11 3.27 11 3.18 1.40  
Pair (using one hole card)
5 8.40 5 8.20 3.91  
    + Flush Draw 14 2.4:1 14 2.29 0.95  
        + Open End Straight Draw 17 1.76 17 1.71 0.67  
        + Gutshot Straight Draw 14 2.36 14 2.29 0.95  
    + Open End Straight Draw 10 3.70 10 3.60 1.60  
    + Gutshot Straight Draw 6 6.83 6 6.67 3.14  

Effective Odds

Monday, July 10th, 2006

When there is only one round of betting left and only one card to come, comparing your chances of improving to the pot odds you are getting is a relatively straightforward proposition. If your chances of making a hand you know will win are, say, 4-to-1 against and you must call a $20 bet for the chance to win a $120 pot, then clearly your hand is worth a call because you’re getting 6-to-1 pot odds. Those 6-to-1 odds the pot is offering you (excluding bets on the end) are greater than the 4-to-1 odds against your making your hand. However, when there is more than one card to come, you must be very careful in determining your real pot odds. Many players make a classic mistake: They know their chances of improving, let’s say, with three cards to come, and they compare those chances to the pot odds they are getting right now. But such a comparison is completely off the mark since the players are going to have to put more money into the pot in future betting rounds, and they must take that money into account. It’s true that the chances of making a hand improve greatly when there are two or three cards to come, but the odds you are getting from the pot worsen.

Reducing Your Pot Odds With More than One Card to Come
Let’s say you are playing holdem, and after the flop you have a four-flush that you are sure will win if you hit it. There are two cards to come, which improves your odds of making the flush to approximately 1,75-to-l. It is a $10-$20 game with $20 in the pot, and your single opponent has bet $10. You may say, “I’m getting 3-to-1 odds and my chances are 1,75-to-l. So I should call.”
However, the 1,75-to-1 odds of making the flush apply only if you intend to see not just the next card, but the last card as well, and to see the last card you will probably have to call not just $ 10 now but also $20 on the next round of betting. Therefore, when you decide you’re going to see a hand that needs improvement all the way through to the end, you can’t say you are getting, as in this case, 30-to-10 odds. You have to say, “Well, if I miss my hand, I lose $ 10 on this round of betting and $20 on the next round. In all, I lose $30. If I make my hand, I will win the $30 in there now plus $20 on the next round for a total of $50.” All of a sudden, instead of 30-to-10, you’re getting only 50-to-30 odds, which reduces to 1,67-to-l.
These are your effective odds — the real odds you are getting from the pot when you call a bet with more than one card to come. Since you are getting only 1,67-to-l by calling a $10 bet after the flop, and your chances of making the flush are 1,75-to-l, you would have to throw away the hand, because it has turned into a losing play — that is, a play with negative expectations. The only time it would be correct to play the hand in this situation is if you could count on your opponent to call a bet at the end, after your flush card hits. Then your potential $50 win increases to $70, giving you 70-to-30 odds and justifying a call.
It should be clear from this example that when you compute odds on a hand you intend to play to the end, you must think not in terms of the immediate pot odds but in terms of the total amount you might lose versus the total amount you might win. You have to ask, “What do I lose if I miss my hand, and what will I gain if I make it?” The answer to this question tells you your real or effective odds.
Let’s look at an interesting, more complex application of effective odds. Suppose there is $250 in the pot, you have a back-door flush draw in holdem, and an opponent bets $ 10. With a back-door flush you need two in a row of a suit. To make things simple, we’ll assume the chances of catching two consecutive of a particular suit are 1/5 * 1/5. That’s not quite right, but it’s close enough. It means you’ll hit a flush once in 25 tries on average, making you a 24-to-1 underdog. By calling your opponent’s $10 bet, you would appear to be getting 26-to-1. So you might say, “OK, I’m getting 26-to-1, and it’s only 24-to-1 against me. Therefore, I should call to try to make my flush.”
Your calculations are incorrect because they do not take into account your effective odds. One out of 25 times you will win the $260 in there, plus probably another $40 on the last two rounds of betting. Twenty times you will lose only $10 when your first card does not hit, and you need not call another bet. But the remaining four times you will lose a total of $30 each time when your first card hits, you call your opponent’s $20 bet, and your second card does not hit. Thus, after 25 such hands, you figure to lose $320 ($200 + $120) while winning $300 for a net loss of $20. Your effective odds reveal a call on the flop to be a play with negative expectation and hence incorrect.

 

Mathematical Expectation in Poker

Thursday, July 6th, 2006

I’ve reread my previous messages… Hmmm, I realized that the “hints” I used to state here are mostly like finger-alphabet… Those who could read them know this for sure. And those who haven’t met this in their everyday live can’t understand anything…
So I decided to explain some poker concepts once again. And I hope I’ll be more precise this time.
Anyway I’m ready to hear your comments and make necessary corrections.
The first thing I would like to deal with is mathematical expectation. The term comes from probability theory and indicates the mean value of the random variable in many identical experiments.
Poker plays can also be analyzed in terms of expectation. You may think that a particular play is profitable, but sometimes it may not be the best play because an alternative play is more profitable. Let’s say you have a full house in five-card draw. A player ahead of you bets. You know that if you raise, that player will call. So raising appears to be the best play. However, when you raise, the two players behind you will surely fold. On the other hand, if you call the first bettor, you feel fairly confident that the two players behind you will also call. By raising, you gain one unit, but by only calling you gain two. Therefore, calling has the higher positive expectation and is the better play.
Here is a similar but slightly more complicated situation. On the last card in a seven-card stud hand, you make a flush. The player ahead of you, whom you read to have two pair, bets, and there is a player behind you still in the hand, whom you know you have beat. If you raise, the player behind you will fold. Furthermore, the initial bettor will probably also fold if he in fact does have only two pair; but if he made a full house, he will reraise. In this instance, then, raising not only gives you no positive expectation, but it’s actually a play with negative expectation. For if the initial bettor has a full house and reraises, the play costs you two units if you call his reraise and one unit if you fold.
Taking this example a step runner: If you do not make the flush on the last card and the player ahead of you bets, you might raise against certain opponents! Following the logic of the situation when you did make the flush, the player behind you will fold, and if the initial bettor has only two pair, he too may fold. Whether the play has positive expectation (or less negative expectation than folding) depends upon the odds you are getting for your money — that is, the size of the pot — and your estimate of the chances that the initial bettor does not have a full house and will throw away two pair. Making the latter estimate requires, of course, the ability to read hands and to read players, which I discuss in later chapters. At this level, expectation becomes much more complicated than it was when you were just flipping a coin.
Mathematical expectation can also show that one poker play is less unprofitable than another. If, for instance, you think you will average losing 75 cents, including the ante, by playing a hand, you should play on because that is better than folding if the ante is a dollar.
Another important reason to understand expectation is that it gives you a sense of equanimity toward winning or losing a bet: When you make a good bet or a good fold, you will know that you have earned or saved a specific amount which a lesser player would not have earned or saved. It is much harder to make that fold if you are upset because your hand was outdrawn. However, the money you save by folding instead of calling adds to your winnings for the night or for the month. I actually derive pleasure from making a good fold even though I have lost the pot.
Just remember that if the hands were reversed, your opponent would call you, and as we remember from the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, this is one of your edges. You should be happy when it occurs. You should even derive satisfaction from a losing session when you know that other players would have lost much more with your cards.