Archive for June, 2006

A little quiz

Wednesday, June 28th, 2006

Today I was reading Winning Low-Limit Holdem by Lee Jones and I’ve seen a little quiz there.

You may check your skills here. The answers will be given after the quiz.

1. Give three reasons why the flop is the most crucial point in a hold’em hand.
2. What is the most common mistake made by low-limit hold’em players on the flop?
3. What is the most important use of the check-raise in low-limit hold’em games?
4. How should you normally play A♠-Q♠ if the flop comes Q♦-J♥-2♣ and you were the only one who raised before the flop?
5. How should you normally play A♠-5♠ in late position if the flop comes A♥-8♦-4♣, there has been no raise before the flop, and you have six opponents?
6. How should you normally play Q♥-Q♣ in early position against five opponents if the flop comes A♣-T♦-4♦ and there was one raise pre-flop?
7. If you have T♦-9♦ and the flop comes T♣-9♠-4♣, what should you do, and why?
8. Suppose you have K♥-K♦, you have raised before the flop, and six players take the flop, which comes K♣-7♦-2♥. What should you normally do?
9. You have A♣-T♣ on the button. Six people take the flop, which comes J♣-9♦-4♣. There’s a bet and three calls in front of you. What should you normally do?
10. You have 9♥-8♥ in late position. There is no raise pre­flop, and five people take the flop, which comes T♦-6♣-3♣. It is checked until the player to your right bets. What should you normally do? Now assume the same situation, but there was one raise pre-flop. What should you normal­ly do?
11. Suppose you have T♣-T♦ in middle position, there is a raise before the flop and five callers. The flop comes T♥-8♥-8♠. How should you normally play? What would be a reasonable alternative play?
12. Suppose you have 5♠-3♦ on the big blind and get to see the flop for “free.” The flop comes 4♣-7♣-6♥. You have four opponents. How should you normally play?
13. You have J♦-T ♦ on the button and are the fourth caller (no raise). The flop comes 7♣-6♥-2♥. There is a bet and one call in front of you. How should you normally play? Now suppose the flop comes 9♣-4♥-2♦. How does this change the situation?
14. You have 6♠-5♠ in middle position with four opponents, and no raise pre-flop. The flop comes T♣-6♥-3♣. There’s a bet and a caller in front of you. What is typically the best play in this situation?
15. You have A♦-A♠ in late position and raise before the flop, ending up with two opponents. The flop comes K♣-T♣-4♦. The first player to act bets, the second folds. You raise and the first player makes it three bets. What would be rea­sonable plays in this situation?
16. You have Q♣-J♠ on the big blind, and there are five callers including you. The flop comes 8♥-J♦-2♥. You check, as does everybody else until the last player to act, who bets. You check-raise, and the original bettor is the only one to call. Now the T♣ comes on the turn. What should you nor­mally do?
17. You have A♥-9♥ on the button and are one of six callers. The flop comes A♣-3♦-8♣. You bet and get two callers. The turn is the 6♠ - they check, you bet, and they call. The river card is the J♣ and again they both check. What’s probably your best play here?
18. You have A♥-K♦, you raise under the gun, and get three callers. The flop comes 7♥-K♣-3♠. You check, planning to check-raise, but it’s checked around. The turn is the J♥, you bet and get one caller. The river is the 8♠. Should you bet or check, and why?
Answers:
1.a) The flop determines the likely winner of the hand.
b) It is when you must make a crucial play/no-play deci­sion.
c) (In structured-limit play only) you can gain informa­tion using cheaper bets that will allow you to make the correct decisions on later, more expensive, cards.
2. Calling bets and raises with hands that have little or no chance of winning the pot.
3. To force players to call two bets instead of one, often mak­ing it incorrect for them to call at all.
4. Aggressively. Raise or check-raise. Assume you have the best hand until somebody represents something better.
5. You have to play very cautiously. Against this many play­ers, there’s an excellent chance that somebody else has an ace with a better kicker. If there is a raise, you should get out. If there is a bet and a couple of calls, you should prob­ably get out. If it’s checked to you, go ahead and bet, hop­ing to win the pot right there.
6. Unfortunately, you can be almost sure that you’re beaten. In spite of the large pot size, you should normally check, and fold if there’s a bet. As you get to later position, if it’s checked to you, it might be worth an exploratory bet. If you get called there, then you probably shouldn’t invest any more money in the pot.
7. You should play very fast. Do whatever is necessary to get lots of bets in on the flop. While you almost assuredly have the best hand, there could be some very big draws out against you, and you want them to pay heavily to draw.
8. You should bet or raise immediately on the flop. The flop is just about perfect for you - it’s virtually impossible you won’t have the best hand on the turn. However, there is so much money in the pot, there’s no reason to slow-play. Furthermore, after you raised pre-flop, your opponents will expect you to bet, so you haven’t given out any informa­tion.
9. Normally you should raise. You are about a 2:1 dog to make your flush, so you are actually raising for value here. Also, your raise may get you a free card on the turn, should you need one. Note also that an eight or queen on the turn gives you an open-end straight draw as well; you may be able to bet your draw for value on the turn.
10. In the First case, you can’t call with your gutshot straight draw - there are not enough bets in the pot, and you must worry about a raise behind you or a check-raise in front. If there was a raise before the flop, you can usually call because the pot has gotten so large.
11. You have flopped a monster hand, and the chance of your being beaten is tiny. However, the pot is huge (10 small bets on the flop), so there’s probably no point in slow-play­ing. On the other hand, slow-playing this hand is a reason­able approach - you’re not worried about getting beaten, and you’re willing to let some lesser hands catch up.
12. In spite of a relatively small pot, you must do everything you can to eliminate opponents immediately. You could be up against a club flush draw or a big straight draw (such as 9♥-8♥). It’s even possible you’re dead against 85, but that’s unlikely. You must bet and/or raise on the flop.
13. Even though you have two overcards, you should normally fold. You have no backdoor flush chances, and the 7-6 com­bination on the flop makes two pair more likely. In the sec­ond situation, you have backdoor straight and flush chances and there’s perhaps less chance that you’re already up against two pair. You can call a bet here.
14. You’ve missed the flop - your second pair with no kick­er is useless. Fold immediately.
15. You could call and then call your opponent’s bets on the turn and river (assuming he bets). It’s possible he has al­ready made two pair or a set, but with this flop you can’t fold yet. On the other hand, if you suspect your opponent is raising with a king or a draw, you could raise once more and try to regain control of the hand, forcing him to check on the turn. An alternative is to call and then raise on the turn.
16. You should probably bet out. You may run into two pair or even a straight, but you have to take that chance on the turn. You don’t dare give a heart flush draw a free card, or a jack with a smaller kicker a free card with which to beat you. On the river, you should usually check, since now there are no “free” cards to give, and you’re not sure if you want to be called or not.
17. You should typically check. As in the above situation, the board is fairly scary, and you just have one pair with a me­diocre kicker. If you bet and get called, you can’t be very happy. If an opponent bets into you on the end, you should call. If the river card were the J♦ instead of the flush-com­pleting club, you should bet.
18. Go ahead and bet here. There are many worse hands that will call you. The flop that got checked around may con­fuse some people; you will probably get called by a worse king and maybe even a jack.
How many right answers do you have?

Poker players (part 2)

Thursday, June 22nd, 2006

PREDICTABLE PLAYERS

The average player
The average player does not do anything too extreme, he likes to play, but he is not overly aggressive with his hand nor does he play too passively. He will bet when he has a good hand, he will raise when he has a great hand, he will call when he has a passable hand, and he will fold when he has a poor hand. The average player will give himself excuses to stay in the hand rather than fold. The average player may be different at different limits. The average player in a $20/$40 game is a better player than the average player in a $5/$10 game. The average player in a $20/$40 game knows to play a little bit tighter (although he will still play too many hands) and knows a few tricks such as raising with a flush draw on the flop, although he may not know exactly why it may be a good play. The average player in a 5/10 game does not do anything overtly stupidly like call two raises with 96o, but he plays even more hands than the average player in a 20/40 game. The average player will put in a bluff now and then but not all that often. When he raises, you can usually count on him having a premium hand.
The calling station
The calling station likes to play along, and follow with everyone else. He does not want to disturb the game and perturb any of his fellow comrades by unnecessarily raising. When the calling station bets, you know he thinks he has a good hand. When the calling station raises, you better run for your life, because he has a monster. The calling station will play many hands, has no problem limping in while in early position, calling a professional player’s early position raise, or calling a bet when he has a pair of 8’s when there are three overcards on the board. Beware, the calling station could be unintentionally trying to rope-a-dope you. If you play too aggressively into him without a made hand, he will simply call you down with a middle pair or a bottom pair. You do not want to bluff the calling station because he thinks it is a social game like the one in his hometown where everyone plays just about every hand to the River and show the winning hand. He is our friend and as our friend, he will not get scared by your actions, he thinks you are his friend as well. A calling station is always a bad player.
The rock
Strangely enough, the rock and the calling station have some similarities. Like the calling station, the rock will only bet with good hands and only raise with very strong hands. As with the calling station, you must be very careful when the rock bets or raises. It is important to give both the calling station and the rock respect when they show aggression. That is where the similarities end. The calling station plays a lot of hands, while the rock plays very few hands. The rock may sit there for hours folding his starting hands and will have no problems folding his blinds. He is the prime candidate to steal the blinds from, but when he does play a hand, watch out. The rock usually thinks he is a better player than the average player. He values patience above all else, and since he is the most patient at the table, he usually thinks he is the best. In some games, he may be right. Some rocks will open up their game when they lose a few bad beats because they cannot believe the worse players are beating them, but most of them will have more discipline, which is why they were rocks to begin with. A rock is typically a good player, although he will not extract as much edge out of the game as better players will, a rock would not be defined as a sharp player. Rocks can be long term winners in low limit games and some middle limit games, but they will need to expand their game and creativity in order to win in the higher limit games.
The solid player
The solid player is a player who has some idea of correct play. He knows he needs to be patient to win at this game, but he is not overly tight. He will play more hands than a rock and he will usually be aggressive when he does play. If he raises from early position, he is predictable because he will have a quality hand. If he open-raises from late position, his hand will be harder to predict because he understands he can loosen up in that position and he is not afraid to try to steal the blinds. You normally want to avoid the solid player when he is raising. He may not bluff or semi-bluff enough because he does not usually take too many chances. Some players will play like a solid player only to morph into a different type of player after a while at the table. The solid player is a good player.
UNPREDICTABLE PLAYERS
The loose aggressive player
The loose aggressive player likes to play a lot of hands. Unlike the calling station, he likes to play them with raises instead of calls. He will raise and bet when his cards are warranted, but he may sometimes bet and raise when it is not clear that he has the best hand at the moment. The loose aggressive player likes to bet on the come. He will use the free card raise as often as he can, even if he just has overcards. Once he raises for the free card, he oftentimes feels compelled to keep betting due to the perceived weakness of his opponents if they are just calling him. It may feel necessary to rope-a-dope the aggressive player by flat out calling him instead of scaring him off with a raise or a re-raise. At times you may feel that he has just enough to go toe-to-toe with you even though you have the nut hand. The loose aggressive player is always trying to steal the blinds, even from middle position. He will bluff more often than the average player and he loves the semi-bluff concept and overdoes it. Because he plays so many hands and is aggressive with them, it may be harder to predict his holdings. They may sometimes run you over when they actually have the goods. Loose aggressive players are usually not good players, however they can get in some streaks where it may seem like they are the best player around.
The maniac
The maniac is Mr. Hyde to the loose aggressive player’s Dr. Jekyll. The maniac is completely out of control and raises sometimes even without looking at his hole cards. Everyone is licking their chops to get a piece of this guy. Maniacs will raise and bluff way too often and they will usually lose their money quickly. Maniacs may not play like maniacs all the time. Sometimes players who are just having a bad day turn into maniacs when they are on full tilt. This can happen after they have been dealt a couple of bad beats which could lead them to play very aggressively in order to get back to even. The maniac is a horrible player.
The professional players
The professional players are the best players and the ones that you least like to see at your table. They could be playing poker as their main source of income or they could be playing it as a supplemental income. They are playing poker mostly to win unlike other players who may be playing for the gamble, the entertainment or just the competition. Professional players understand the importance of playing aggressively when they have a solid hand and they also understand the importance of choosing their hands selectively. They will try to extract the most amount of edge from their opponents when they have the best of it, but try to get away cheaply when they have the worst of it. Professional players have thought about and studied the game, be it through reading, talking to other players or just thinking about the game. Professional players will still have a wide range of characteristics in their style. Some will be more aggressive than others, some will bluff a bit more than others. Of course, there are always those who consider themselves as professional players who really are not.
Players can change styles depending on if they are winning or losing
There are players who will try to play solidly when they first sit down, and continue to play solidly if they start off winning. But some players can change their styles drastically if they start to lose, particularly if they take a bad beat. All of a sudden, these players will go from playing solid to being a bit more aggressive, semi-bluff and bluff more. If they continue to lose and get some of their bluffs called, or better yet, get another bad beat, they could wind up opening up their game and could turn into a maniac-type of player.
This is one of the situations where having played with the player in the past and knowing this particular characteristic is very useful. If it is the first time you ever played with him and he plays like this, you may assume this is how he plays and use that information the second time you play at the same table with him. But the second time around, he may be running good and playing solidly, in which case, your perception of him will be completely off.

All-Blogs

Poker players

Thursday, June 22nd, 2006

Knowing how the other players play is one of the keys to achieving success at Limit Hold’em. When sharp players know their opponents well, sharp players will know how their opponents act and think.
Understanding how your opponents play is more useful when pots quickly become heads-up as opposed to being multi-way pots. This means it is more useful in shorthanded games and less useful in low limit games. In shorthanded games, pots will become heads-up on the Flop more often than in full games because fewer players are needed to fold to get to that point. In low limit games, players will play looser in general, so more players will be seeing the Flop and beyond. When the opponents play looser, the tighter players can correctly expand their playable hands with good drawing type of hands. So the looseness in low limit games compounds upon itself. With many players, it becomes tougher to use any one player’s tendencies to your advantage, since there are other players in the hand to consider as well. With that said, any player who knows how his opponents play will always be better off than a player who does not.
I will break down player stereotypes into two major categories, predictable players and unpredictable players. Both categories have their share of bad players and good players. Players can be predictable whether they play loose or tight, but generally predictable players are passive. Players can be unpredictable whether they play loose or tight, although generally the unpredictable players are more on the aggressive side. Sometimes certain players may become extremely predictable in certain situations when they are not normally.
PREDICTABLE PLAYERS
Predictable players are easier to play against than unpredictable players. When predictable players act, the strength of their hand will typically be clear based on their actions. It may be that when they bet or raise, they have a strong hand. It may be that when they have a strong hand, they never raise on the Flop but always wait to raise on the Turn when the bet size doubles. Conversely, it may be that when they raise on the Flop they never have a made hand but are raising for a free card. A good, sharp player has a better idea of the strength of predictable players’ hands based on their actions, although a poor player may not pick up on it. Different players will be predictable in different ways.
UNPREDICTABLE PLAYERS
Unpredictable players are not necessarily good or bad players. When they act, it is tougher to pinpoint their hand compared with pinpointing a predictable player’s hand. Unpredictable players will use strategies such as bluffing and semi-bluffing often, sometimes too often. Even though good players can be somewhat unpredictable, there is only so far they can take this. If they are too unpredictable, it will mean they are playing too many hands, and giving up too much edge for the quest to be unpredictable. Instead, good players will choose his spots to be unpredictable, spots where playing unpredictably may give them the greatest edge. Players who try to play unpredictably all the time invariably play too many hands and thus are giving up too much edge for their trickiness.

How you should play a hand before the flop (continued)

Tuesday, June 20th, 2006

Your position
Your position is simply where you are in relation to the button. Being on the button is the best position because you will act last in all but the first betting round. Being one to the left of the button is then the worst position.
Position is perhaps the most undervalued component of good hold’em play. It’s easy to see that bigger cards are better, suited is better than non-suited, and if there is raising going on, you need a stronger hand to play. However, many (if not most) low-limit hold’em players make their playing decisions without considering their position. If you play without careful attention to your position, your bankroll will suffer.
By acting after other players, you know what they will do (check, bet, etc.) before they know what you will do on a given betting round; this gives you an advantage. For instance, suppose you have a very strong hand. If your opponent acts before you and bets, then you raise. If he checks, you bet. Regardless of his action, you get the maximum amount of money in the pot. On the other hand, if you’re first to act, then you must decide between betting immediately, hoping he will call, or trying to check-raise. If you check with the intent of raising and he checks too, you have lost the bet you would have made had you bet and he called.
Here’s another example of the importance of position. Suppose you have 55 as your starting hand. If you are the first to act before the flop, you normally shouldn’t call. We will cover this in detail shortly, but you need a lot of opponents to play small pairs. Suppose you call with your 55 in early position. If the next player to your left raises and scares out the other players, you now wish you hadn’t called the original bet. However, suppose you are on the button. If somebody raises early and limits the pot to two players, you fold, knowing you’re doing the right thing. But if six players call in front of you and there’s no raise, you can call with your fives. Simply being closer to the button means you have more information about how many opponents you will have and how much you’ll have to invest, enabling you to play this hand.
There is one aspect of position that is perhaps not as important in low-limit hold’em as it is in the higher limits. In tough hold’em games, when the flop doesn’t hit anybody, the player last to act can often bet and win the pot immediately. Because of the number of “calling stations” that are often in a lower limit game, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to do that. However, good position is still vitally important, and you must consider it at all times.
For the purposes of this text, we will consider a nine-player table. We’ll declare the first four positions to the left of the button “early position,” the next three “middle position,” and the last two (including the button) “late position.” Of course, you’ll need to adjust this for the exact number of players at your table. When doing so, tend to err on the side of caution; if you can’t decide if it’s early or middle position, call it “early.”

Your relative position
There is another aspect of position to consider - let’s call it “relative position.” It is where you sit in relation to specific other players at the table. Obviously, your position with respect to the button will change as it moves around the table. Your relative position to another player will be less volatile. For instance, if you sit immediately on a player’s left, then you’ll act after him on every hand with the exception of ones on which he has the button. If you sit directly opposite him at the table, you will act before and after him equally often.
If there is a player who is very aggressive and raises a lot, you’d generally like to be to his left. That way, you’ll see those raises coming before you act and can drop your marginal hands. If you sit to his right, too often you call one bet only to have him raise behind you and now you wish you’d saved the first bet.
If, however, that player bets and raises almost always (let’s say 90-95% of the time), then you want to have him on your left. Because he’ll be initiating action so frequently by betting or raising, you’ll effectively act last after he has started the action. For instance, this gives you the opportunity to check-raise the entire table when you make a strong hand. Remember, for this to be correct, that particular opponent must be almost guaranteed to bet or raise when given the chance. Otherwise, keep him to your right.
In general, you’d like to have loose passive players to your left. They behave predictably so you’re more willing to have them act after you. You will have an easier time predicting what they’ll do, and will make the right play more often.
You may even want to move into an empty seat that gives you better position with respect to certain players.

TBC

How you should play a hand before the flop

Tuesday, June 20th, 2006

Your decision to call, raise, or fold before the flop must be based on several factors. Among the most important are:
1. Your cards
2. Your position
3. Your relative position
4. How much money you must invest initially
5. The number of players in the hand.
6. How your opponents play
If you ignore any of these factors when making your first playing decision, you are not likely to be a winning hold’em player.

Your cards
Starting hands (the two cards that are unique to your hand) in hold’em fall into some natural categories. You will learn that hands in different categories do well in different situations, so you need to understand and remember these categories.
Pocket Pairs: two cards that are a pair, for example, “pocket 9’s.” Since the difference in value between pocket aces and pocket deuces is so huge, we will separate the pocket pairs into three sub-categories: aces down through jacks are “big” pairs, tens through sevens are “medium,” and sixes through twos are “little” pocket pairs. These subcategories are, of course, somewhat arbitrary, but this is a reasonable division.
Big Cards: two “big” cards, ace through jack. A♣-Q and K♥-J are examples of offsuit big cards. A♥-K♥ and K♠-Q♠ are examples of suited big cards.
Connectors: two cards one apart in rank. They have the ability to make straights and, if suited, flushes and straight flushes. Examples are T -9 and 6♣-5 ♠. Note that QJs has the distinction of being both “Big Cards” and a “Suited Connector.” We sometimes include in this group the lesser quality hands with gaps between the ranks. For instance, 9♠-7♠ is a suited “one-gap.” T♣-7♣ is a suited “two-gap.”
Suited Aces and Kings: fairly self-explanatory. Examples are A♠-8♠, K♥-9♥. Of course, a suited ace is much stronger than a suited king because if you make a flush with it, you have the nut flush, whereas the king high flush can be beaten by the ace high flush. Having an ace high flush is much better than having a king high flush. Having a king high flush is only a little better than having a queen high flush.
Believe it or not, even if you chose to play only hands that are in these categories, you would be playing too many hands. Some of them are not strong enough to play in certain positions and some of them (32s comes to mind) are generally not strong enough to play anywhere. However, many of your opponents will play every hand that fits into the above categories, and a lot more as well.

TBC

Some more hands

Friday, June 16th, 2006

1/ You hold 6 5 in the big blind. An early player calls, the button raises, the small blind calls, and you call. Four players see the flop of 9 6 3. You bet out. The early player calls and the button raises. The small blind calls and you call. All four players see the turn of 5. The small blind bets. You raise, the early player reraise, and the small blind calls. There is $320 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below  in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)   Answer: Call. You are most likely against a flush. There is also a chance you could be against a straight or a set. You have four strong outs to a full house unless an opponent has 99, or possibly 66 or 55. Four outs are 11 to 1 requiring only a $220 pot for calling to be correct. Note that your raise on the turn was questionable, as a flush was a high possibility given that three opponents paid two bets on the flop to see the turn. In the actual hand, the player called and lost to the early player who showed A Q.   2/ You hold Q J in early position. An early player calls, the next early player raises, and you call. A middle player, the cutoff, the button, and the big blind all call. Seven players see the flop of 9 8 6. The cutoff bets and the button raises. The first early player calls and the preflop raiser folds. You call and four players see the turn card of K. The cutoff bets, the button calls, and the early player calls. There is $430 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below  in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)  Answer: Call. Calling bets on the turn for a gut-shot straight is rarely correct unless the pot is quite large. In this hand, the pot is large and your call will close the betting so that you don’t risk a raise behind you. Your four outs are to the nuts since the board is not two-suited or paired. Four outs are 11 to 1 against improving requiring a pot of $330 to justify a call. In the actual hand, the player called and the T fell on the river. He bet and one opponent showed T 9.   

3/ You hold A 3 in middle position. A middle player limps in and you call. The cutoff, button, and small blind all caps. A wild unpredictable player raises from the big blind and everyone calls. Six players see the flop K Q J. The big blind bets, you call, the cutoff raises, and you both call. The turn is the K. The cutoff bets and the big blind raises. There is $360 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below  in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)  Answer: Fold. You are 4 to 1 against hiding the flush and are getting sufficient pot odds of 6 to 1 on the flush if it would win. However, there are several problems with calling in this situation.   Assuming that your opponents don’t already have a full house, couples of your outs are probably counterfeited and should be disregarded since it is likely that at least one of your opponents holds a king. In this case, you will lose to the Q or to another spade if it matches your opponent’s kicker card. This reduces your outs to seven, which is 6 to 1 against improving and is even money with a pot of $360; however, this is your best case. With a pair on the board, you need to discount your outs for the decent chance that you are drawing dead to a full house. Possible hands of your opponents include KK, QQ, JJ, KQ, and KJ. Some players may add outs for the possible straight; however, you would lose to a full house or KT. Even if the straight won, you would probably only split the pot.   In the actual hand, the player called. The flush came on the river. The big blind folded and the cutoff showed K9. The player collected a large pot in this particular case, but his call has a long run negative expectation given the pot size and betting sequences that occurred in the hand.   

4/ You raise in early position with A K. A middle player calls and both blinds call. Four players see the flop of 9 5 3. The big blind bets, you raise, the big blind reraise, and you call. The turn is the 2. The big blind bets. There is $320 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below  in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)  Answer: Call. The worst case scenario is that your opponent has a set or two pair. A straight is doubtful based on the betting sequences in the hand. Even in the worst case scenario, you still have four good outs to a gut-shot straight. A gut-shot draw is 11 to 1 requiring a pot of $440; however, you also have additional outs if your opponent is betting a pair. These outs are counterfeited however if your opponent holds A9, A5, A3, K9, K5, K3, a set, or two pair. I would discount the six outs to the ace or king down to three outs; therefore, J would play the hand as if I had seven outs, which is 6 to 1. Odds of 6 to 1 require a $240 pot; therefore, calling is justified. In the actual hand, the 4 came on the river giving the player a straight while his opponent showed 5 3.    5/ You hold A K on the button. A middle player calls and you raise. The big blind reraise and you both call. Three players see the flop of Q J 8. The big blind bets and you call. The turn is the 9. The big blind bets. There is $270 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)   Answer: Fold. You have 10 outs to improve your hand; however, an ace is counterfeited or already no good if your opponent holds AQ, AJ, AT, AA, QQ, JJ, or TT. All of these hands are possibilities from a reraise in the big blind. In fact, the only reasonable hand that you could expect to beat if an ace comes is KK. If the river is a king, your situation is worse as you could not heat any reasonable hands, and will only split if your opponent holds AK also. You have four strong outs to the gut-shot straight, although there still is the possibility you might split. Four outs are 11 to 1 and require a pot of $440 to be profitable. In the actual hand, the player folded.    

 

Some cases to think over

Thursday, June 15th, 2006

1/ You hold 9d 6d in the small blind. A middle player and the button calls. You call and four players see the flop of As Qh 6c. The middle player bets and the button calls. There is $120 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Fold. You have five outs to improve your hand, which is 8 to 1. The pot odds are only offering 6 to 1 so you should fold. Even with better pot odds, you would need to discount your outs for the possibility that you are drawing practically dead to AA, QQ, 99, 66, AQ, A9, A6, K6, Q9, Q6, J6, and T6. Rarely draw to two small pair unless the pot is exceptionally large, and preferably when an ace is not on the board since there is a better chance that your outs are counterfeited with someone holding Ax {any hand with an ace in it).

2/ You hold As 9d in the small blind. A middle player and the cutoff call. You call and four players see the flop of Qc Td 9h. You check, the big blind bets, and the middle player and cutoff both call. There is $140 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Fold. You have five outs to improve your hand; therefore, you are 8 to 1 against improving requiring a pot of $160. In addition, with so many callers, there is a good chance that one of your opponents flopped a straight, a set, or two pair with this type of flop. If an opponent has two pair, your outs are reduced to three if they hold a 9 also. If an opponent holds a pair, your ace is counterfeited against AQ or AT. Even in the best case scenario where you improve to the best hand on the turn, with so many opponents there will be many ways you could lose on the river. You need very good pot odds to draw with such a dangerous flop against so many opponents. In the actual hand, the player folded. One opponent showed Q9 and the other KJ.

3/ You hold Ad Tc on the button. An early player and middle player call. You raise and the small blind calls. Four players see the flop of Qs Th 9d. The middle player bets. There is $10 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Raise. Note how your hand and the flop are almost identical to the previous problem; however, there are two main differences. First, the pot was raised preflop, giving you better pot odds. Second, two opponents have checked, indicating weakness. This differs from the previous hand where you already had three callers, making it difficult for you to have a winning hand. Your opponent could be betting a straight draw with a weak pair, in which case you may currently have the best band.

In low-limits, most opponents slowplay straights, sets, or even two pair, so usually you do not have to worry about those hands. Even if your opponent has top pair, you have five outs, which is 8 to 1. The pot odds are 10 to 1 so calling is justified; however, I prefer raising in this situation. Raising will drive out the other opponents from weak gut-shot draws and may allow you to possibly take a free card on the turn. Raising will also give you information on the flop about your opponent’s hand once you see how he responds. In the actual hand, the player just called and hit a full house when an ace fell on both the turn and river. The bettor folded and the early player showed A8.

4/ You hold Qs Jh in the big blind. A middle player, the cutoff, and the small blind call. Four players see the flop of Ad Ts Td. The middle player bets and the cutoff calls. There is $6 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Fold. You have four outs to the gut-shot straight, and this is reduced to three outs if one of your opponents has a flush draw. You also are drawing dead if one of your opponents holds AA, TT, AT, or KT. Three outs are 15 to 1 and the pot is only $6. In the actual hand, the player called both the flop and turn and got his straight when the K♦ fell on the river. Unfortunately, one of his opponents had 6♦ 5♦ and hit a flush. Straight draws go down in value when the flop is two-suited or paired, especially when they are only gut-shot draws.

5/ You hold Jc 9c in the big blind. An early player calls, the next early player raises, and the button, small blind, and you call. Five players see the flop of Jd Th 9h. You decide to check and the early position player bets into the preflop raiser who decides to raise. The small blind and you call. The early player reraises and the preflop raiser caps the betting. The small blind calls. There is $11.50 in the pot. What do you do? (The answer is below in black font. Mark all the space below in order to know the right answer.)

Answer: Call. With so much, action you are probably against a straight, so you will need to improve. You have four outs to a full house, which is 11 to 1 against improving, but you are getting 12 to 1 pot odds assuming the early position player calls. If you do hit one of your outs, you should win a lot more bets. In the actual hand, the player folded. An opponent with Q♣ 8♥ won the hand. Although this player saved some bets since a jack or 9 did not come, the actual result of the hand does not mean his play was correct. In the long run, he would make more money by calling with the implied pot odds he was receiving.

Odds, Pot Odds, and Implied Odds

Wednesday, June 14th, 2006

To play poker well, you must understand the terms odds, pot odds, and implied odds. Let’s be sure that you grasp each term thoroughly before we go on.

Probability and odds
“Probability” is the likelihood of an event happening. It is a number between zero and one, and is often expressed as a percentage. For instance, a .70 probability of rain today is the same as a 70% chance of rain.
“Odds” are another way of expressing probability and are more applicable to games of chance such as poker. Odds are shown as a pair of numbers separated by a colon; the pair represents a ratio between the probability of an event happening and its not happening. Being somewhat whimsical, we could say (from our example above) that rain is a 7:3 “favorite” today. That is, the odds of rain are 7:3 in its favor; for every seven times it rains on a day like today, there will be three dry days. The opposite of favorite is “underdog” (or “dog” for short). If you say, “That team is a 5:2 underdog,” you mean that for every two times they win in this situation, they will lose Five.
What do odds mean to betting? Let’s consider the weather forecast above. You and a friend decide to bet on whether it will rain. Given that you know rain is a 7:3 favorite, what is a “fair” bet? If you choose to bet on rain, and your friend bets on no rain, you should put up $7 for each $3 he wagers. Over 10 days, it will probably rain seven times. You will collect $3 from your friend on each rainy day for a total of $21. On the remaining three days, it will not rain. Your friend will collect $7 from you on each dry day for a total of $21. Thus, on any given day, one of you will pay the other, but in the long run, you will both expect to break even. Now, suppose you can find somebody willing to put up $4 for each $7 you bet, but you know that rain is indeed a 7:3 favorite. You still lose $21 on the three dry days, but you collect $4 each of the seven rainy days for a total of $28. In 10 average days, you make a $7 profit! This book will teach you to find and exploit opportunities where you have a similar edge over your opponents.
Let’s look at a hold’em example. Suppose you have flopped a heart flush draw. That is, you have two hearts in your hand, and two more come on the flop. What are the odds of making your flush on the next card (the turn)? There are a total of 13 hearts in the deck; you have seen four of them, leaving nine more. You have seen a total of five cards (your two plus three in the flop). That leaves 47 unseen cards, of which nine are the hearts you want to see. There are 38 cards that do not make your flush and nine that do; the odds are 38:9 “against.” You are a 38:9 (slightly worse than 4:1) underdog to make your flush on the turn.

Pot odds
Pot odds are the odds being offered to you by the pot compared to the amount of money you must invest in it. For instance, suppose after the river card is turned up, there is $30 in the pot. Your opponent bets $6. The pot now has $36 in it, and you have to call $6 to see his hand. You are getting pot odds of 6:1. You will also hear the expression “the pot is laying you 6:1.” Now your choice is (relatively) easy: if you are no worse than a 6:1 underdog to win the pot, you call the $6; otherwise you fold.
Pot odds also apply to draws. Suppose you have a draw that is a 3:1 underdog to be made. For you to call a bet there should be at least three times as much money in the pot as the amount you must call. Of course, that includes any bets that precede your call. For instance, if the pot contains $15 and your opponent bets $6, the pot now contains $21 and is laying you 3.5:1. Since you are only a 3:1 underdog, you can call.

Implied odds
Going a step beyond pot odds are implied odds. More accurately, they might be called implied pot odds. When you compute pot odds, you can only consider the money that’s already in the pot.
The concept of implied odds lets you ask the question, “If I make the hand I’m drawing to, how much more money will I win than what’s already in the pot?”
For example, suppose you have a flush draw with one card left to come. You know you are about a 4:1 underdog to make your flush. There is $16 in the pot, and your opponent bets $6. The pot (now $22) is laying you about 3.7:1, but you’re a 4:1 dog to make your flush. According to strict pot odds, you can’t call. However, suppose you’re “sure” that your opponent will call a $6 bet on the river if you make your flush. Now you can act as if the pot contains $28 (what it currently contains plus the $6 more you will win if you make your flush). You can make the $6 call with your flush draw.
Of course, when considering pot odds or implied odds for a draw, you must be “sure” that you will win the pot if you make your draw. If you’re not sure, then the pot must lay you a higher price to make your draw correct. Also, when considering implied odds, you must be just as sure that your opponent will call your bet after you have made your hand.

You will win

Monday, June 12th, 2006

Webfeed (RSS/ATOM/RDF) registered at http://www.feeds4all.nlYou know playing poker you face different situations. Sometimes you’re so lucky. Seems that you could raise any hand on preflop and win a cap on the river getting a straight.
But at the same time you could catch another streak. You will have you pocket aces all night long and you will be beaten by an idiot with 27o and his two pairs.
If this happens I usually reread this abstract from Internet Texas Hold’em. Winning Strategies from an Internet Pro by Matthew Higler.
Let me introduce it to you.

Poker is a game of skill. This is not easy to explain to people who do not understand the game, but good poker players will win the money.
Good Poker Players = The MONEY
However, there is one huge caveat in this equation. That caveat is time. Good poker players will win the money given enough time.
Good Poker Players = The MONEY…given TIME
In any one hand, the odds are pretty even for everybody. Over an hour, the better poker players have a little advantage, but could easily lose a lot. In a session of eight hours, a good poker player will win the majority of the time, but not all the time. If a good poker player plays 100 hours of $20-$40 limit Hold’em, he could win as much as $20,000. But once in a blue moon, he might lose $10,000. A good poker player could only break even after 1400 hours of play. Given any time below that, he could possibly lose.
As you can see, a good poker player will win given enough time, but it may not be as easy as it seems in a short time period. Granted, these are extreme cases, but they can happen. What happens in between the extremes is a lot of short-term fluctuations, which can frequently last several days, sometimes several weeks, and even several months. We will talk more about these fluctuations in the “Bankroll Management” chapter.
It is important to realize that there are subtle differences between a good poker player and a bad one that take effect over time. The beauty of poker is that the bad players always remember the limes they had some good short-term luck, so they keep coming back for more until they eventually go broke.
However, understanding how to play good poker is not enough to win the money. You must APPLY this knowledge at all times. Poker is a fun and exhilarating game, but there is nothing more frustrating than outplaying an opponent only to lose money to him,
MANY players begin to play badly when things do not go their way. This is commonly referred to as tilt. However, I don’t think tilt fully explains the range of emotions. Of course, the first step is preventing yourself from going on tilt, but there is a big difference between playing your “A” game and going on tilt. Many players may not go on full tilt, but they begin to play just a few more hands or make a few more calls than they should. This often happens late at night when a player is trying to get back to even before going to bed. Good players realize that they can always get hack to even the next day.
I expect that the difference between the expert players and the good players is their emotional control. You must have discipline to be successful playing poker.
So remember:
Good Disciplined Poker Players = The MONEY…given TIME

And remember also that poker is not blackjack. You are playing against usual people not a system. And if you perform better poker you are going to win the money.
Arnold Snyder who plays blackjack professionally could state in many his articles that you shall not win. But laying poker you may be sure that being a Good Disciplined Poker Player you will win. And it doesn’t matter how long it will take you.
You will win.
If you play poker you will win.
If you’re ready to improve your poker skills you will win.
At long last…

The Expected Value

Saturday, June 10th, 2006

I’ve noticed that in my previous posts I’ve used some terms that are really important to know.
First of all it’s expected value.
The term comes from the probability theory.
You are in a restaurant looking at a menu. You see two entrees that you like equally, but one is cheaper than the other. You decide to order the cheaper one because you will be just as happy with it. You have just made a decision based on the comparison of the expected value of the two entrees.
You are driving on a highway during rush hour. Your lane seems to be going slower than the lane to your left. The first chance you get, you switch over to the left lane so you can get home faster. You have just made a decision based on the comparison of the expected value of the two lanes.
You are playing poker. The pot is very big, but your hand is mediocre. On the last round of betting, you say “ah, what the heck, I’m going to call, the pot is just too big.” You have just made a decision based on the perceived expected value using information about the size of the pot and the strength of your hand.
Expected value is a concept that everybody uses in their daily lives, although they may not realize it. Whenever we have a choice, we use expected value to guide us on our decision. Sometimes the value of the choices are not purely monetary as it could be based on happiness, a term that academics like to call utility. Usually there is no need to use a formula to calculate the expected value of a decision, but there are some cases where the use of calculating expected value will show us something that is counterintuitive or simply show us why a certain idea is correct or incorrect. It can also help us to pinpoint what factors we need to consider when we are playing poker.
Expected value (EV) is a term used to describe the value of an event over the course of all possibilities. It is an easy way to describe situations that can have many different results, and shows the average result over all the probabilities. A simple example involves a basketball player at the free throw line. If the basketball player has made 750 free throws out of 1000 free throw attempts, you could estimate that he has a 75% chance of making a free throw attempt. Then you can say the EV of the number of points that he will score on one free throw attempt is 0.75. He will either make the free throw and score one point or miss the free throw and not score a point, but on average, he is expected to score 0.75 points with one free throw. The concept of EV is used throughout this book to demonstrate the values of certain poker plays and ideas. This section shows how EV can be calculated and demonstrates how it can be used, in preparation for its usage throughout this book.
The way to calculate the EV of an event is to take all possible events and assign a probability and a result to them. The sum of the probabilities will equal 100%, and the sum of each individual result multiplied by its probability will equal the EV. If the EV of the event is a positive number, we can say the event has a positive expectation or positive value. If the EV of the even is a negative number, we can say the event has a negative expectation or negative value.
Here’s an example in Hold’em
You are playing $10-$20 Hold’em and the pot is currently $80 after the Turn card.. You have an open-ended straight draw and you are 100% sure your opponent has a hand that you will not beat unless you make a straight. But if you do hit your straight, you will win the hand. You believe there is a 17% chance that you will make your straight and a 83% chance that you will not. (In the chapters on Outs and Pot Odds, I will go into further detail on how to estimate your chances of winning and losing.)
Your opponent bets $20 and you must decide to call or fold. You only have $20 left in your stack, and if you call, you cannot lose more or win more on the River as you are considered all-in. If you call and win, you will win $100. If you call and lose, you will lose $20. You have to figure out if calling has a positive expectation.

Action
Computation
Result
EV of 10/20 problem
(17% x $100) + (83% x -20)
+$0.40

So you expect to make $0.40 by calling, which means it is better to call than fold. Sometimes you will win $100, more often you will lose $20. However on average, you expect to make $0.40. Calculations like this are difficult for most players to do in their heads while at the poker table. In the chapter on Pot Odds, a simpler way to make the determination of calling or folding is shown. It is practical and much easier to implement, and yet it will be consistent with the EV equations. It is still useful to understand and apply the EV equations when studying the game and thinking about certain situations when not at the poker table. That is its purpose in this book, using it to study the game as opposed to using the equations directly at the table. There are simpler ways to make those calculations and not give up any accuracy.
In poker, whether they know it or not, players are always trying to put themselves into situations where they have positive EV. Good players are able to distinguish between situations that have positive EV and negative EV. When they have positive EV, they will decide to get involved in the hand. When they do not have positive EV, they will get out of the hand. Meanwhile, bad players are not able to distinguish between positive and negative EV. Thus they will often get involved in hands that have negative EV. Sometimes they will get out of hands that have positive EV. Every poker player must identify the difference between positive EV situations and negative EV situations. Once the positive EV situations are identified, the goal is identify the best play that will maximize the EV.